Category Archives: Google

Mobile Fix – Dec 19 – The Christmas Issue

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Have a Soulful Christmas - from addictive!

 

It’s that time when everyone either does a round up of the year or predictions. But we’re going to resist the temptation. As they say in Hollywood, No-one knows anything And our last attempt at predicting the future back in 2002 still stands up quite well.

So instead we thought we should focus on some of the big questions for 2015; 

Will the M&A fervor around AdTech ever quieten down? Fox have just paid $200m for an interesting video ad startup.  Or will VC money start to flow elsewhere? In the excellent Google Ventures summary of their year Life Sciences got the biggest chunk of their investment.

Who will win the battle for the money migrating from TV to digital? Google or Facebook? Facebook seem to be winning the battle for display. And this analysis of the reach of the new Apple ad on Facebook shows video is getting really interesting too; broadly 20m views on Facebook (vs 2m on YouTube) is more than you would get with an ad in a big TV show like NCIS. Not that scientific, but more evidence that Facebook can now get close to the reach of TV. Finally a quote from one of the key AdTech people at Facebook sums up their pitch; “Don’t spend a dollar unless you know that dollar is delivering ROI,”

What is the next big thing in messaging? Payments are going to be important; Facebook have poached another PayPal exec to work with David Marcus who made the same switch earlier this year. Kik have a smart new idea on how to use hashtags to create micro social networks.

Which of the next tier firms has the best chance to grow? Twitter are going after app download ads with their new features around phone activation. Even with all their smart acquisitions are Yahoo hampered by their CEO? – this is a pretty damning attack on Marissa. 

Will peripherals* get significant traction? The idea that Netflix will serve up recommendations to your smart watch shows what a lack of imagination there is around watches and wearables. Right now – like Google Glass – they don’t solve a problem for civilians. *Given none of the watches etc seem to function properly without a smartphone close by, we think wearables is a misnomer and peripherals a much better term.

Are QR codes going to be cool again? We have pointed out that WeChat reinvented them in China and amongst the leaked SnapChat emails we see they paid $50m for a startup focused on QR codes and NFC, beacons etc. The ability to instantly connect mobile with the physical world is a big deal, even if we haven’t really worked out what to do with it yet.

Can anyone make a success of Media on digital? Michael Wolff thinks its all crap but Wired has a good look at some of the newer players like Circa and Buzzfeed. John Battelle has some good advice; To me, just one question matters when it comes to a publication and whether it has a chance of long term success: Is it a must read?

And how will Programmatic change the ad industry? It’s already making big changes to the media side of the industry – and this interview with GroupMs  Rob Norman is well worth reading.  Next it’s the turn of the Creatives to adapt. Or not.

Over the next couple of weeks you will probably have some time for reading so we recommend you flick through these;

The 10 year anniversary ContagiousX.

Boston Consulting have shared a good report on Mobile in Europe

Criteo have an interesting Slideshare on the state of mobile commerce

The guy behind the XPrize and the Singularity Hub has a good post on Mobile, the megatrend of the decade.

And if you get really bored you should read this and change all your passwords.

Finally 2015 is going to be another rollercoaster ride on innovation, change and hype. Those that seize the mass market opportunity of ubiquitous mobile with a social layer baked in can profit. Those that hang back and keep repeating their old strategy are running out of time. It’s time to experiment.

Now we recommend you recharge the batteries and are delighted to share our soundtrack for a Soulful Christmas. Best enjoyed with a large glass of something red.

Have a great Christmas 

Mobile Fix – December 12

Apps still evolving

We have a view that apps are the CDs of mobile content; a clear winner over the ‘analog’ mobile web where so many sites still don’t work well for smartphone. But eventually the hunger for a stream will switch attention from apps just as they did from CDs. Notifications are the clear portender of this evolution, even if we don’t yet know what form the stream will take.

As ever, looking at China gives us a glimpse of an alternative to the western user experience. This long post from a US mobile guy working in China is fascinating and there is a lot to learn from his various examples. For instance the idea there is still life in voice input and QR codes is interesting, especially when you see the problems they are solving for Chinese users.

At LeWeb this week the webs inventor Tim Berners Lee spoke up in the apps vs web debate and – unsurprisingly – comes down on the side of the web. He makes the point that closing content up in apps make collaboration and sharing harder.

Deep Linking, one of the ways that apps are evolving, goes some way to addressing this. This is a good summary of the current state of deep linking. Again China is a good place to see some interesting examples. And Google – who have more to lose than most if apps win over the web – are pushing deep linking with new ways to benefits from deep linking in Android apps.

There are other ways to enrich the app experience and Layer give good examples of how their native communications make apps more useful.

If you are interested in user experience – and you really should be – its worth finding some time to read this design class that looks at Maps to make some key points about design. After seeing the attention to detail needed to get these things right, maybe brands will stop hiring their ad agency to do throwaway $20k apps and get some expert advice.

Talking of maps a new report on Googles mobile woes* says that Google Maps only has 100m monthly active users on the 400m iPhones in use. Being the default can be enough for a good enough product, even if there is a better one available. The Homescreen project shows Google maps is on 39% of homescreens versus 36% for Apple maps.

And Ben Evans makes the point that much of Google services aren’t that useful to civilians.

* We don’t subscribe to the Information so haven’t read this report – if anyone can share it with us we would be really grateful.

Smart newTV

The new Ofcom report shows how the UK is now the worlds most advanced digital market – more money spent by consumers on ecommerce that anywhere else. And more money spent online by brands than any other country.

We are also the country with the most smart TVs; 22% of homes claim to have one and 84% are connected to the internet – so 18% of UK homes can watch Netflix, iPlayer, Amazon etc on their big screens. That’s not including PlayStations and xBoxes . Or Chromecast and Amazon Fires.

In the US Chromecast is doing really well and this chart shows how it is outperforming Apple TV. In the UK retail support is good with buyers rewarded with a Google Play voucher and a 3 month trail of NowTV. A Fix reader tells us that when you watch YouTube via the Chromecast the ads now play – so Google are selling TV ads in around about sort of way.

The FT asks whether streaming will lead to a new golden age of TV with Netfix and Amazon commissioning shows as well as YouTube and Vimeo encouraging new talent.

With Sky now selling TV with postcode targeting and Virgin introducing dynamic ad insertion brands can now use TV in a different smarter way –albeit with limited reach.

In its usual click bait fashion Business Insider declare TV is over, based on a range of US data about cord cutters. We don’t think that’s true but things are changing and a King Canute approach won’t work. There is lots of potential for brands to be early and be smart. Will we see a new golden age of TV advertising too?

Year in Review

Lots of looking back at 2014, inevitably at this time of year. It’s worth looking at how the key players see the year;

You Tube celebrate some of the years memes with their most famous YouTubers- who tend to be unrecognizable to anyone over 20

Twitter uses hashtags to show the key moments of the year and the perspective of an eclectic list of 20 celebs –from Lady Gaga to Gary Linekar via Bollywood start Amitabh Bachchan

Facebook has a video pulling together celebs and news – plus a bit of ice bucket challenge and you can did deeper on some key topics and events

Our key takeout is that these are no longer tech companies – they are media companies that both reflect and define culture.

Quick Reads

This is a really good look at how Facebook have transformed themselves into a major player in adtech.  And just how well positioned they now are to fight Google for the money moving from TV.

The Chinese are coming – 2 of the biggest digital media revenue companies and 4 of the fastest growing.

Wired digs into the point we keep making – most of the dotcom ideas were actually smart – they were just a decade too early.

Facebook are doing really well in video and making life difficult for YouTube. But smart brands know you need both – and that there is a lot of reach elsewhere on the Open Web

Too many people still lump tablets with mobile when all the evidence suggests tablets tend to be used in the home. So they should be considered as desktop alternatives. Google are recognizing this by focusing on context rather than devices. It’s worth checking to see whether your team are looking at tablets separately or are they distorting your data by treating them as mobile.

Monitise have aggregated lots of good data on mobile money.

The FT looks at the new social apps – and tell us that ello is doing well amongst female impersonators. Now that is niche.

Mobile Internet is worth £73billion to the major European economies.

Finally….Buzzfeed have a great listicle that proves that 2014 is the future.

Mobile Fix- December 5

Own Goal?

The moves in the Quad Play space we talked about last week continue, with rumours that Vodafone will take Blinkbox off Tescos’ hands to accelerate their move to video content. Blinkbox has had a lot of investment from Tesco when their management were focused in the potential threat from Amazon rather than the more urgent disruption from Aldi etc. This could be a good deal, which when added to the content Vodafone already offers to mobile customers (Netflix, Spotify and Sky Movies) and with a settop box would catapult them into the battle with Sky, BT and Talk Talk.

There are also rumours of a much bigger move by Vodafone; a takeover of Virgin owner Liberty Global which would give them a significant base of TV customers as well as their broadband network.

One area that will be impacted by these changes are the upcoming negotiations for the Premiership TV rights. BT changed the game by winning a chunk of games – surprising everyone – and used this to launch their TV offer and aggressively compete for broadband. If, as seems likely, they do end up with a mobile operator their appetite for football will increase.  The same applies for Vodafone.

In our opinion it’s the mobile rights that are more interesting.  News Group have the digital rights now having paid around £20m. That was apparently an increase on the previous deal when Yahoo had the desktop rights and ESPN bought the mobile rights – which they struggled to monetise.

And it looks like it may have paid off for News Group. Digital subscribers to the Sun have doubled to 225k – with the Times reporting profit for the first time since 2001, so the Paywall seems to be working but growth in subscribers is slowing. How much of this growth is driven by the football is debatable, but £7.99 a month for the Sun and Footie seems reasonable value.

We have often suggested that GAFA could be bidders as Google and Apple look at their TV ambitions. As YouTube moves to a subscription model what better case study than the way Sky built their business on the back of the Premiership? And we still feel that content could become an Anchor for Apple – although they currently seem to prefer to retail other peoples rights in music, games and film.

The FT look at the main rights and how the balance could shift between Sky and BT. This time around the mobile rights are going to be worth a lot more and we can forsee more bidders. But as News Group have shown, you need a subscription revenue model to get the real value – ad revenue is just a nice bonus.

Ad Avoiders

Whilst a surprising number of people choose to us adblockers most ad avoiding is less calculated, More and more content providers are choosing to offer ad free services for subscribers – Spotify, Netflix etc. And if you buy or rent content through iTunes or Amazon its ad free. And YouTube are moving to an ad free subscription model.

This opinion piece from betaworks summarises it well – the rich can avoid advertising through subscription, whilst the poor will just have to put up with ads. You can even imagine that Spotify source the worst ads to drive people to upgrade from their free service.

This article makes the point that we have made advertising so cheap it’s no longer that attractive for many publishers – especially when people also block ads too. But it makes the very good point that, whilst inventory is virtually infinite, peoples attention is fixed. And consequently, quite rare. 

And that’s what all marketers really want to buy  – the attention of the right people. There is a media issue here – being willing to pay the right price for the right amount of attention. And a creative one too; having just the right message to make the most of that attention.

App Ads

Wall Street takes a real interest in advertising, given the number of adtech companies that have floated as well as GAFA dominating the market in terms of sheer size.

Barclays have released a fascinating report that looks at many of the big tech players and makes a good job of explaining the market – including the rise of programmatic where they are bullish. Their conclusion is that the market will reward the biggest players and that Facebook and Google are likely to grow at the expense of the rest. This supports our view that brands should be maximizing their investment with Facebook and Google and trying to understand how to make the most of these 2 huge opportunities.

Despite protestations the key drivers of Facebook growth –and most of the rest – is still app download advertising – although both Google and Facebook are very focused on getting brands on board.

TechCrunch have a good look at the app download ad market and get into some detail on what Facebook, Twitter and Google are doing to improve their attractiveness to app developers. Fabric from Twitter and Parse from Facebook are really smart attempts to get closer to developers and bake themselves into the app landscape 

Of course Google and Apple could change this market overnight were they ever to sort out their appstores. It is amazing that Google can’t use their unrivalled expertise in search to make Play easier for users to find things. And it’s equally amazing that Apple, with their obsession over user experience, leave users to stumble through long lists of apps, in seemingly random categories.

A smart VC, that used to be at Facebook, has a good look at how Facebook are using Parse and think it has huge potential.

There are huge revenues at stake in this area and anyone who can help improve performance can make a lot of friends 

Mobile Only

The data on Black Friday and Cyber Monday show a huge increase in mobile usage. But it’s just not surprising anymore. More big brands are spending money on mobile – but that’s is only natural.

The surprise is that other brands seem to have missed the fact 35 million people in the UK are using a smartphone to rewire how they live their lives. Eric Schmidt makes this point well when he talks of the world moving from Mobile First to Mobile Only

Benedict Evans has a new blog post where he talks of the New Questions in Mobile. This is really interesting stuff and we’re excited about the future possibilities of cards, notifications and deep linking between apps. But the war is over and Mobile has won – there are just too many brands acting like Japanese soldiers who didn’t get the memo and continue to fight the old battles.

For the first time in a long time brands can get real competitive advantage by being much much better at this new stuff than their rivals. Let the laggards focus on their big Christmas telly ad whilst you unlock the value of your data with smart advertising that delivers the right message at the right time to millions of your customers.

Quick Reads

At a Ridley Scott premiere this week we were reminded of a quote we heard that the tech people like Scott use in epic movies, only takes a few years to arrive on everyones laptops. The new Beyonce video demonstrates how tech is transforming the creative world, with a great film shot entirely on an iPhone.

Blending retail with tech and mobile is still more talked about than real but a new eBay initiative shows what is possible.

The Chinese influence on new developments in messaging continues – everyone wants to be the western WeChat.

Google have a good report on viewability

Finally… one simple benefit of digital is that you can now learn from the best people in any field. Follow them on Twitter, read their decks on Slideshare and find interviews on YouTube. This long interview with Reid Hoffman (Linked In & PayPal) is very good. 

 

Mobile Fix – November 28

WhatApps

As we mentioned before we play WhatApps at the start of any workshop we do; people pass around their unlocked phone so others can see what apps are on their homescreen. As well as reminding people just how personal their phone is, people see that people tend to have a number of the really popular apps and a few that are very personal to them.

Twitter is the latest media company to take an interest in what apps you have downloaded. By doing this they claim to deliver tailored content that you might be interested in. This plays to their need to better engage new and occasional users who don’t follow many people and hence tend to see little content when they use Twitter

In a happy coincidence, this same data can also be used to better target advertising and equips Twitter with a stronger argument to win spend from the app download campaigns that still drive a large proportion of mobile ad spend.

We think there is good learning for any brand from the apps that have been downloaded. In the old days we believed that knowing which TV shows people watched, and the newspapers and magazines they read, was a much richer insight into people than their age or social class. Now apps probably define people as well or perhaps even better than much of the other data available.

Apple and Google have the best knowledge here through their, appstores. Facebook have a good idea through the apps that use the social login. And Yahoo with the acquisition of Flurry and Aviate, are building their understanding.

And this is why peoples homescreens are so interesting. Betaworks probably started this with their study of people sharing their homescreen on Twitter and Instagram. Now they have launched an app that makes it easy for you to share your homescreen. #Homescreen takes your screenshot and posts it to Twitter and adds it to a website, where people can hover over the apps to see how popular they are. You can see ours on the site here.

We find more and more people are starting to organize their apps and for many people the home screen is where the most used apps are – so this should become a great source of data on which apps are getting the most traction.

Quad play 

The revival of BT continues and they are believed to be in the market for a mobile operator and either O2 or EE could soon be swallowed up so BT can offer their customers a complete comms package.

The mobile operators have pushed broadband in the past but none have made that much progress, with O2 handing their broadband customers over to Sky. EE have preserved and Vodafone are now taking it seriously.

Virgin have been very aggressive and their cross selling is shaking up the market as they use the experience of new owner Liberty to focus on a Quad Play – Mobile and fixed line telephony, home broadband and TV.

It’s the TV service that has really turned BT around and TalkTalk have used YouView to offer a reasonable TV service which has given them around 1m TV customers. They are switching their MVNO from Vodafone to O2 and are being very aggressive on pricing 

Vodafone hinted they are going to offer TV services bundled with their home broadband and they are getting closer and closer to Sky – who have long lusted after a mobile offer. 

So what does this mean for brands? Advertising has never been that significant for any of these players when compared to subscriber revenues – in the last quarter Sky took £104m in ad revenue against subscriber revenue of £1.6bn – but technology will change that.

Sky has started to make money from their AdSmart offer where brands can target individual postcodes (and targeted TV is getting traction in the US) Weve is now starting to drive mobile ad revenues for the mobile operators. And as cross device tracking improves – take a look at what Device9 are doing – the ability to run activity on both targeted TV and the smartphones of viewers watching that TV show will be feasible.  That sort of opportunity will drive significant  revenues and as the operators have to compete on price to attract and retain customers, ad revenue will become much more important to them

(Good background on the Quad play here)

Dialogue Marketing

Last week we talked about the pieces falling into place as mobile matures, and now its time to focus on what brands can get from this mass market opportunity.

Like Marc Andreessen we believe that much of the thinking of the dotcom boom was actually quite sensible – it’s just that the scale of users weren’t there. With 35 million people in the UK using smartphones, digital is now both mass market and mature.

One line of thinking that we really believed in was the idea of 1 to 1 marketing. Championed by Peppers and Rodgers this approach argued that we could talk to people as individuals. Lots of email marketing has it’s roots in this thinking (although very little gets it right) and we developed the idea further to come up with Dialogue Marketing, where the ability to see some ones actions (their digital body language) also informs how you talk with them. DLKW Dialogue was so named to try and live up to this and we did some really interesting work across all digital channels.

But digital advertising spend then was a fraction of what it is now and CRM was another silo, often handled by another client team / and or agency. 

Now the idea of fusing CRM and digital advertising is really feasible. Why? Because all the messaging gets delivered on the same device –a smartphone. And the CRM data on existing customers can be fused with first and third party data on individuals to target digital ads. Equally CRM can now be actioned through social (to some extent) and through app notifications

Custom audiences on Facebook and Twitter are hugely powerful tools – enabling your existing customers to be targeted – and helping find lookalikes. Yet few brands are using the services – perhaps because the idea of paying to reach people who have already given you permission to email them seems a little extravagant. Yet with Mailchimp saying typical open rates struggle to get over 20%, new ways to reactivate these users can be a really good investment.

It is getting easier to track people across devices and across channels. And many marketers recognize that getting more purchasing from existing customers can be a more effective approach than trying to find new users. 

Of course advertising has always reached both existing customers as well as prospective ones. In smart digital advertising the level of targeting sophistication means brands can choose whether or not to speak with existing customers. But in most cases taking advantage of what you know about an existing customer should make driving a sale easier. 

The one thing needed to deliver Dialogue Marketing though, is a range of creative messaging that fit the targeting – if you just give everyone the same message then you are probably wasting money on the targeting. This is still the Achilles heel of programmatic.

Quick Reads 

QR Codes just will not die. Despite many experts declaring them over, businesses are still finding ways to use them. Powa are trialing payments with Tesco using QR codes and the airlines find they work really well for boarding passes. A new firm is pushing a modified version of QR codes but we wonder whether they can get people to use yet another app.

Getting one of the YouTube stars to wax lyrical about your product to their millions of fans has got a lot of brands and agencies very excited. And the pay rate has got the YouTube stars pretty worked up too. Now the Advertising Standards Authority has dampened this enthusiasm, pointing out you have to make it clear when a brand has paid for a mention. Lots of native advertising is running the risk of an ASA sanction.

Dark Social is a huge factor in sharing. This is the new term for sharing done outside Facebook, Twitter and the other trackable social platforms. It includes email and messaging, which is how lots of content gets shared. 

Last week we talked about Firefox changing its search partner to Yahoo and speculation is increasing around the Apple relationship with Google search that we mentioned. Now we see this pop up when you leave a Yahoo page on Safari. It doesn’t actually work, but it’s an interesting tactic.

Facebook have launched a new initiative to help app developers, including some funding

Finally… We see music as the canary in the coalmine for digital content. What happens to music is a pretty good glimpse of the future. So the way the US charts are changing is fascinating – including streaming and YouTube views as well as purchases and radio play gives you a much richer data set. And that data will now be a much better indicator of just how popular a track is as frequency of consumption is monitored as well. How might consumption data change the way other digital content is value and funded? 

 

Mobile Fix – November 14

It’s all about Video

“Five years ago, Facebook primarily consisted of text …if you fast forward five years, it’s probably going to be mostly video.”

Mark Zuckerberg

We missed this quote from a couple of weeks ago, but along with Susan Wojicki statement that over half of all YouTube viewing is now mobile this backs up our conviction that it’s now all about video. Now.

That’s why Yahoo bought BrightRoll – so they can continue to grow their display revenues and capitalize on the shift to online video spending by big brands. And look at the how the EMEA Yahoo team has so much experience in TV.

Some Yahoo investors seem to think that a merger with AOL would be a smart move as that would give the joint entity a third place position after Google and Facebook – but still some way behind. We tend to agree with this piece defending Marissa Mayer. With the hire of a top ad sales person from Amazon, the team seems well positioned. And this new buy shows they have a plan.

Video is display 2.0. It’s what brand advertisers love. It’s a format that elegantly and easily transitions from broadcast television to PC to mobile and even to wearables. This is why video is a key part of our strategy. 

It’s all about Music

Along with photos we see music as a key Anchor, something that GAFA have to offer to have a chance to keep people within their vertical stacks. We still have thousands of tracks in iTunes many of which aren’t on Spotify etc and migrating them to a new service is a lot of friction. The threat to the money Amazon made selling music CDs by Apples iTunes store arguably kicked off the tension between GAFA, and all now have strong music strategies.

The new Google service is Music Key and it builds on the often overlooked fact that YouTube is already the biggest source of music listening on digital. The new service looks strong – this analysis by Musically is a good read – and raises the bar for Apple and Beats.

They were helped in the PR battle by Taylor Swift pulling all her music from Spotify. Music Key has all Taylor Swifts old music but doesn’t have the new one either. Swift and her label contend that Spotify isn’t paying them anywhere near enough money, but Spotify disagree.

The Music industry is divided over the future; those who believe streaming is going to generate much more money for labels and artists are seen as overly optimistic by the rest, who think making money from selling recordings is over and its now all about live shows. 

The next stage in music is ad funded streaming and we expect that YouTube will continue to be a big player here as non subscribers watching music videos will still be pretty huge.  A combined Beats / iTunes radio is expected to launch with ad funded models early in 2015 and we’ll see whether brands can take advantage of this opportunity with better creative. Anyone who has spent any time listening to the ads on the free Spotify service may be not be that optimistic.

We can expect to see lots more exclusive windows of top artists new albums – see JayZ with Samsung and Beyonce with Apple – as the key players see the value of being able to offer something their rivals cannot.

The other players in music are also active; SoundCloud has raised quite a lot of money and have now signed a deal with Warner where the label gets paid whenever one of their tracks is featured in a mix or a DJ session.

And the original music start up LastFM – now owned by CBS – is still around and we understand they are going to focus on discovery with their fantastic Scrobbler technology, with the music delivery left to Spotify etc.

Retail

We talked last week of the activity in visual recognition and Fashion Tech. The other side of this coin is how retail are using visual recognition and mobile in general. As we have covered before, most of the big supermarkets are playing with Beacons but none feel ready to subject their shoppers to personalized messages – yet. Asda are the latest to trial the technology – and we know their colleagues from Walmart have been scouring Europe to see who is doing what.

In our view, the big opportunity is around personalized pricing as a way to counter the general cheapness of Lidl etc. The next Clubcard type step change in retail will be a big player using a ShopKick style service to deliver real time discounts, funded by the brands of course. 

The FT have an interesting round up of what retailers are doing including the Asda partnership with Zappar to celebrate Halloween.

Singles Day

The online shopping frenzy that Alibaba invented, took place this week and broke all the records. They took $9.3 billion – up by around 50% on last year and 43% of the orders were on mobile. To give that some context, Amazon takes $166million on an average day.

This is a fascinating look into how the Alibaba team ran the day – lots to learn.

Quick Reads

Sweden has embraced electronic money

Square are looking to exploit the shift to chip and pin cards in the US.

Amazon are commissioning more original programming – and so are Netflix.

Twitter have a new expression of their mission and want Wall Street to see they are bigger than they thought

Amazon are experimenting with using Taxis for delivery – the smart people at GetTaxi have been looking at that too

More smart thinking on the evolution of apps – how they are changing from destinations to distribution tools

Finally… if you want to read a good business book the FT have published a list of the best ones from the past few years.

Mobile Fix – November 7

Mobile Money

The word on Apple Pay seems positive in the US. As this article points out the rapid adoption is one of the key strengths of Apple.  And this well thought through post points out the strategic importance of Pay for Apple. Having tested all the key ingredients Apple could launch a fully ready product and they are taking advantage of the fact the upcoming switch to chip and pin requires everyone to install new POS terminal – (nearly) all of which will have NFC.

As we mentioned last week, US retailers have an alternative system – CurrentC – brewing and some stores have refused to accept Pay in the meantime – switching off the NFC terminals as it’s the only certain way to stop Pay. This interview with the CEO of CurrentC doesn’t suggest that Apple have much of a fight on their hands.

It’s hard to see anyone really countering Pay in the iOS ecology so I guess the opportunity for all these other Mobile Money players is Android, But can any get the scale to dominate? 

The obvious contenders are Google, Amazon & PayPal. It seems to have gone quiet at Google Wallet but we should expect some movement. And newly independent Paypal are still innovating – their One Touch payment is coming to Europe soon.

Amazon showed one strategy with their partnership with AllSaints. As well as being able to pay using your Amazon account, being a Prime member gets you free shipping.  As they get more sites using the Amazon pay button, an offline payments system makes more sense. But will high street retailers feel comfortable partnering with Amazon and sharing data on purchases 

As well as helping push payments this partnership is probably part of a bigger Amazon (stealth) push into fashion.

China

As the debate continues over how apps and mobile content evolve what can we learn from China? Their BAT, like our GAFA , are dominant and shaping the market. And finding the big switch to mobile something of a challenge.

Because of the great firewall that keeps US competitors like Google, Facebook & Twitter out of China, the Galapagos effect is interesting as it shows alternatives to the way our market is changing.

It’s the largest internet market by far – with 632m internet users it’s over the twice the size of the US (in second place with c270m users) – even though penetration is relatively low at 48%. When/if it gets to the UK figure of 90% the market would be over 1.2 billion users – the vast majority by that time on mobile.

The three big players in BAT (Baidu, Tencent & Alibaba) see messaging apps as the key to maintaining their dominance and both Alibaba and Baidu are investing heavily to compete with the Tencent owned WeChat and QQ.

These apps that have daily usage often have ‘smaller’ apps bundled within them; the most quoted example is a hotel booking app bundled in the Baidu maps. As linking between apps become more common we expect this focus on partnerships to grow in the West too.

Alibaba have taken another approach that has paid off really well. They invented the idea of Singles Day, where Chinese people who don’t have a partner treat themselves with some online shopping. Last year this event drove nearly $6bn in sales – twice the size of the US Black Friday and Cyber Monday – and with Alibaba sales up by 54% in the last quarter expectations are high for this November 11.

Of course just as the Chinese own lots of physical infrastructure in the west who is to say they don’t become equally acquisitive of digital businesses?

Visual recognition

One of the issues for the CurrentC people in their fight with Apple, is that their payments system uses QR codes and, despite that being hugely successful for Starbucks, it positions the product as a little dated. Even Google Goggles seem quite old hat now – but their acquisition of WordLens suggests they are still moving forward .

One area where there is lots of action is in FashionTech where a Shazam for clothes is the Holy Grail for many. Upmarket US department store Neiman Marcus have been quick to embrace mobile and have launched a new service called Snap Find Shop. Using a Canadian technology called Slyce, shoppers take snaps of clothes or pictures of clothes and the NM app shows you matching items.

That’s actually quite hard to pull off and this piece points out the difficulties andlooks at the various players – many of whom are in London.

One killer application of this tech is in making print catalogues and magazines shoppable. When Net a Porter launched their print magazine Porter they also launched a Layar powered app to make all the content shoppable. Other AR players like Blippar (who now own Layar) are active in this space too.

Mad Men/Math Men

It’s one of the most persistent clichés, but the tension between Mad Men and Math men gets repeated because it’s largely true.

The Chief Creative Officer of Facebook has made an impassioned plea for creative people (the talent celebrated in MadMen) to get more involved in the distribution of ads. He is right that at the moment the Math Men tend to drive the digital element and the benefits of right/left brain collaboration are lacking.

Too many creative people still dismiss digital as just banner ads and on their 20th anniversary they are getting a bit of a kicking. Somewhat unjustly really , as many very smart digital creatives have and continue to make them work for both brand and response. But too often they are left to the last minute and given to the most junior people. On mobile it’s even worse, as frequently desktop assets run unchanged  – just smaller – or are chopped up by mac jockies at the media network.

But there are better formats on mobile, as we find ways of integrating messages into the flow of peoples mobile stream.

Michael Wolff laments the loss of the old (Mad Men) advertising world here, but we remain optimistic – you can blend art and science and those brands that do can perform alchemy; turning the lead of small ad formats into the golf of customer attention and action.

We have been doing a lot of work looking at how Programmatic and Creative interface and we see a huge divide. And a huge opportunity.

The best way to improve any Programmatic campaign is by making the creative more relevant and more effective. As we develop our new project in this space we’re keen to talk with anyone who wants to see the two worlds realign. If you are interested get in touch.

Quick Reads 

Building on the Apps are the new CDs thought we shared last week Forrester have made 8 predictions  on how apps are going to change

And a look at how Messaging Apps are so addictive

An interesting look at how Facebook are approaching partners in Europe

More on the new Twitter developer tools Fabric

Good stats on the rapid rise of Mobile Search – you need to be getting this right, right now.

Finally – our favourite media remains Vanity Fair magazine which always has a great mix of insightful articles. This one on the Uber CEO is well worth reading

 

 

 

Mobile Fix – October 10

Privacy comes up more and more in our work. In the last couple of weeks two clients have mentioned feeling slightly disturbed by the way data is being used in marketing. One, a German, felt quite strongly that brands that ‘overuse’ data run the risk of alienating customers. 

Which reminded us of Google location – just click on www.google.co.uk/locationhistory/ and, if you are logged into Google, up will pop a map like the one above, with a calendar, so you can see exactly where you went on a particular day. (The random day I picked from last summer happened to be the last time I went to Facebook and – being before Citymapper launched in that city – I was probably the only person to turn up on the bus)

You can also run it as a movie, showing exactly how you travelled around that day – presuming you had a smartphone with Google turned on. Of course Apple also know quite a lot as does Facebook who are poised to launch hyper local location based ads.

Now we are all watched over in many other ways; if you drive in London your number plate is recorded and checked constantly to see if you have paid the congestion charge/ taxed your car/ have valid insurance. And in the city with (probably) more CCTV than anywhere else on Earth , you can be tracked as you move around the city as improving facial recognition makes this easier and easier.

But the depth and breadth of what digital firms know is worrying people. A good Wired piece on data and how it is used was picked up by the Standard this week. It’s a really good take on the subject.

Tim Berners Lee argues that this data should be owned by the individual, as it is really useful to that person;

“In general … if you put together all that data, from my wearable, my house, from other companies like the credit card company and the banks, from all the social networks, I can give my computer a good view of my life, and I can use that. That information is more valuable to me than it is to the cloud.”

The idea of Vendor Relationship Management where a person has control of their data and capture the value themselves has been around for quite a while – we featured it in our 2002 futurology video – but it has never caught on and one wonders if it’s now too late?

A good piece in Quartz points out the rapid growth in social login, where access to a site or app is given when the user logs in with Facebook, Google, Twitter etc rather than registering with the app itself.  Some US research says 77% of people had used social login, up from 53% the previous year. Other research says Google and Facebook account for over 80% of all social logins.

Talk to any good growth hacker and they’ll tell you that social logins are a great product feature as people find them convenient – and perversely some think privacy is better protected this way.

As brands understandingly migrate to vendors who have first party data, enabling cross device tracking, and Google and Facebook extend their ad networks, the monetary benefit for the app owner to favour social logins will only increase.

The strong are going to keep getting stronger and their favoured diet is our data. Hard to see anyone changing this in the short term.

But Apple may have a go; a friend spotted this now pops up on iOS8.

Advertising 

The new IAB figures show burgeoning growth of UK mobile adspend continues. The figures for the first half of 2014 are up 68% with video doing incredibly well.

Agencies are increasingly adding online video to traditional TV campaigns, with Omnicom recommending US clients switch between 10% and 25% to online video. Much of this still flows to the big broadcasters for their catch up services but clearly lots gets directed to newer players. Which is why Yahoo are so focused on video – much of their European management team has a TV background and Marissa sees the future as video; 

“For us, display is really about brands storytelling, and display 2.0 is video.”

Probably the most intriguing advertising news this week (other than the Facebook local play) is that SnapChat are ready to offer advertising. Given they have a lot of reach and not much data, there won’t be too much targeting and users will be able to skip ads

“We are cutting through a lot of the new technology stuff around ads to the core of it: telling a story that leaves people with a new feeling,” he said. “They aren’t fancy, they are not targeted.”

Sounds like the need for smart creative in mobile is back. News that Google are pushing tools that measure the brand effect of digital ads supports this. Brand Lift isn’t that revolutionary but making it a core tool rather than an add-on is a significant move.

Money

One of the emerging tools to measure the longer term effect of mobile advertising is to look for a sales effect and much of the energy around mobile money and wallets is that they could be the best attribution measure ever. Imagine person a saw the Facebook ad on their mobile, watched a YouTube video on their mobile, clicked on a mobile banner and subsequently visited the store and buy the product using their mobile wallet. Data doesn’t get much more compelling than that.

That’s why we think Google will buy PayPal or Square to accelerate their mobile wallet. And it’s why Facebook hired the PayPal CEO and have a payments product ready to go.

Apple however has a different agenda and ads don’t seem that big a part of it. Tim Cooks note on privacy a few weeks ago set the tone. They want to sell great products and build what we call Anchors – services so compelling that moving to Android would be a huge effort.

Apple Pay is clearly an Anchor and they have eschewed the opportunity to harvest data from these transactions. This plays nicely to privacy but also to security. When the Target CEO gets fired because hacker stole 40m credit card profiles, security is moving front and centre and Apple don’t want to risk their reputation. The breach of iCloud to steal celeb selfies was damaging but containable. A similar scandal with Apple Pay would not be.

In this in depth look at Apple Pay we can see that the system is built around a new way to handle payments. Whilst complicated, its benefits are really clear. This is much safer than using a credit card in the normal way. (And the fingerprint recognition on the device is also hugely impressive for users)

All the other players are going to have their approach compared to Apple Pay and we suspect people like Zapp will struggle, despite signing up retailers well in advance of their launch.

That doesn’t mean we aren’t going to see real innovation in FinTech –Marc Andreesen believes the whole system is ripe for reinvention

“We have a chance to rebuild the system. Financial transactions are just numbers; it’s just information. You shouldn’t need 100,000 people and prime Manhattan real estate and giant data centers full of mainframe computers from the 1970s to give you the ability to do an online payment.

‘‘You would not today, starting from scratch, invent any of these financial businesses in the same way. To me, it’s all about unbundling the banks. There are regulatory arbitrage opportunities every step of the way. If the regulators are going to regulate banks, then you’ll have nonbank entities that spring up to do the things that banks can’t do. Bank regulation tends to backfire, and of late that means consumer lending is getting unbundled.” 

One start up that has been able to disrupt the market is Square – the $billion side project of Twitter founder Jack Dorsey. Despite some negative commentary recently, they have raised more money – $150m at a valuation of $6billion. 

And picking up the point we made regarding Starbucks last week, they recognise that payments in and of itself isn’t a problem that needs solving – it’s the areas around it where you find friction. So Square are getting into pre ordering  - just like Starbucks. I guess this takes Square into the same space as JustEat and HungryHouse.

Quick reads 

Good thinking from Harvard Business School on the war for attention

More on Softbanks hunger for content 

Is Instagram The Next Great Ad Network? Yes

A look at the changing music industry. As we have discussed in the past, the future is really good as streaming delivers increased revenues. Its just that the sharing out of these riches may prove controversial.

How linking between apps is getting better

Finally …we are out and about next week. I’m on a mobile panel at the Facebook Upfronts on Monday morning then talking about location and mobile at an Omma conference in the afternoon. As ever, if you are there come and say hello.

Mobile Fix – September 26

Mobile & Money

As the details of Apple Pay become clearer, analysts are generally positive – although not quite as bullish as the Chamath Palihapitiya view we shared last week. Many people site Starbucks as evidence that payments can and do work.

In the last data we saw, Starbucks dominates mobile payments in the US. In 2012 around $500m was spent using mobile payments – and Starbucks was around 90% of that. They have been hugely successful – and now 15% of all their US transactions are using their app – but the Starbucks Chief Digital Officer points out it’s not just about payments – the loyalty aspect has been a big driver. 

They are one of the brands that Apple have partnered with for Pay – but interestingly they don’t intend to let people but coffee with Pay – just top up their Starbucks app. Their brand is so strong they have ambitions to expand outside of Starbucks;

“We want to get mobile ordering right first, but you could be hearing more about us in the mobile wallet or universal loyalty space sooner than later

A smart Fix reader made a similar point about the Oyster card and how it could have become a means of paying for items outside of Tube tickets. Now with a plethora of new players like PayM, Zapp Powa etc as well as the Mobile Operator wallets, PayPal and Google iPhone  et al users have a lot of options. But it seems to us that Pay will become a real Anchor for Apple by making it so easy.

And as more people use Pay, more retailers will come on board. Talking with UK supermarkets, they have resisted payments because they tended to slow down the checkouts. Starbucks have focused on their point of sale tech and processes; 

We were able to save 10 seconds a swipe for any kind of Starbucks card, mobile payment, credit card or debit card transaction. That ended up saving us 900,000 hours of line time a year. 

If Apple Pay can contribute to that sort of improved efficiency, people will rush to sign up.

(btw  – one of most hyped mobile money startups has been Clinkle; ran by a 23 year old, they raised $25m seed money and has a  long list of VCs as investors, along with Richard Branson. Lots of smart people have joined and many have quickly left. And it was in stealth so no-one knew quite what they were up to.

After 3 years it has finally launched a rather average debit card linked to an app. Sounds a lot like the Osper card we mentioned the other week)

The Chinese are coming

The Alibaba IPO was the biggest float ever, raising $25bn – eclipsing the $16bn that Facebook raised. Some have questioned the ethics of investing here – largely because the BAT Chinese digital giants  (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) benefit from having no competition from Google, Facebook, Amazon, eBay etc in their home market.

There is a lot to learn from how these companies operate and we now look at BAT when consider the vertical stacks of GAFA. And this good article looks at how important China has become to the global tech economy – with good insight into their M&A activity.

But perhaps the most immediate effect of the IPO is that it (probably) puts Yahoo into play.

Yahoo’s market capitalization is about $39 billion, while its Alibaba stake is worth $37 billion and its Yahoo Japan stake is worth $8 billion.

So someone could buy Yahoo and sell those stakes and essentially get Yahoo for free. Who could that be? No doubt clever Private Equity people are hunched over their calculators right now, but to GAFA, Yahoo would be a valuable acquisition.

Despite some peoples misgivings over their progress under Marissa Mayer, Yahoo still have huge reach (on desktop and mobile) and throw off huge amounts of cash.

Given that Yahoo is still a major player in search its hard to see the EU etc allowing Google to swallow them without divesting the search business to Bing. But for Facebook and Apple they would get lots of content to feed their userbase. And Amazon would get lots of potential buyers that it currently has to advertise with Google to reach. And perhaps even Microsoft or Murdoch could be interested?

Or how about Softbank?. This Japanese company has been very aggressively trying to grow the US business with the merger with Sprint, but its pursuit of TMobile has been unsuccessful. Combing an operator with a content business like Yahoo has been talked about lots, but this could be a first.

As JV partners in Yahoo Japan, the two sides know each other well. And, of course, Softbank now has a new leader who knows a little about the digital space; Nikesh Aurora moved over from Google a few months ago. Is this how he makes his mark in his new role?

We think it’s unlikely that the Wolves of Wall Street will leave something this vulnerable (and valuable) alone, so watch this space.

Beacons

Just like Big Data there is rather more talk about Beacons than there is action. It’s clear there is huge potential, but so far few people have actually started to use them. This piece looks at some of the innovations around the internet of things that use beacons – but there isn’t a killer app. Yet

The people at Estimote have done much to shape the market, and this article considers how they see the potential – including indoor locations. We think that Beacons will be used for simple ideas that improve various situations. For example when Starbucks get around to pre ordering, how do they stop the coffee going cold before you get there? A beacon could detect when you arrive at the store and the coffee is made then and there – and you don’t need to wait.

This example of coupons in Passbook working really well shows the potential – and Beacons could add another dimension. There is a huge opportunity for good old fashioned sales promotion thinking (or Shopper Marketing as its now called).

We’re keen to help kick start this area, so hungry to work with retailers, restauranters etc to test out ideas and try and make some progress.

Quick Reads

Blackberry has a new square device that is going to save their business. We’ll see.

The clever people at Betaworks have revitalized Digg

Apple have bought a firm that makes it easy to create magazines for mobile. Another sign that content creation is being democratized. Will we see the return of the fanzine?

More good thinking on the Apple Watch

More proof that Apple are only human. After the live screening debacle at the launch event, the latest iOS update has been withdrawn.

Eric Schmidt has a new book out – How Google Works. It’s now on our Kindle but we are still engrossed in Goldeneye

Finally…we are big believers in the sharing economy and are looking to rollout our collaborative consumption platform SkratchMyBack in more regions. But the some elements of this movement are proving controversial.

In New York lots of people don’t approve of their neighbours renting to strangers and this long piece looks at both sides of the argument. And the way Uber treats its drivers is questioned in this MIT article. Enabling people to share their assets makes perfect sense but we need to consider the losers as well as celebrate the winners.

 

 

 

 

Mobile Fix – September 19

Thinking about Apple

The ramifications of the Apple launch last week continue. Pre sales of the new phones have gone very well – too well perhaps; as the wait time on Apple is weeks. Some of the operators were quick to offer the iPhones too and have done really well.

iOS8 is available and that has kept people thinking about Apple –once they could actually get it downloaded. It looks beautiful and the elegance of much of the interaction whets the appetite for the iPhone6 too.

We are also starting to get an understanding of just how much better the new devices are – and the camera in particular is getting a lot of praise. As we talked about last week, the Ice Bucket Challenge has taught millions of people that making and sharing video isn’t that hard. Add a great camera to that new expertise and we can expect some great content.

For a long time we have argued that video is going to be democratised just like music was with the launch of technologies like the Roland 808 –that enabled talented people to make music in their bedroom and bypass the traditional stranglehold of the record companies. As the explosive growth of YouTube has shown, the talent is there and even with a webcam they are making content people want to see. Better camera will accelerate this. SXSW showed a film shot entirely in an iPhone5 and the guy behind that is very bullish.

It’s the Apple watch that is driving most of the commentary though. Last week the feeling as the launch was a little vague and that was a bad thing.  This week the feeling seems to be that the vagueness was actually pretty smart – as it allows Apple to set the agenda over the coming months as they drip feed feature and functionality news. Talking in a US TV interview Tim Cook talks about their desire for developers to come on board before the device launches. Just like no one expected Uber, Moves or Flappy Bird when the iPhone launched, great watch apps could make the device a must have.

One of the best Apple commentator blogs is DaringFireball and he makes some good points over pricing – suggesting the gold watch could cost as much as $10k. He also gets into some of the possible functionality – which, along with some of Tim Cooks comments, make the Watch sound like less of a peripheral. It will clearly have many ways to enhance the iPhone in your pocket or bag but will be able to do a lot on its own. He also thinks that the S1 computer on a chip that powers the watch could be replaceable, meaning the Watch is truly comparable with luxury watches where people expect them to last a lifetime.

Ben Evans thoughts on the Watch are worth reading – particularly his point that the delight of glancing at your wrist, to see that Leeds have scored or that your flight is being called, could be just as addictive as the smartphone. People check their phones dozens of times a day – can a watch replace much of that? 

The chatter around Pay is more muted – largely because there is still a lack of real insight into how the service will roll out. Sure, we know the key points but as Apple need all the various partners on board, its not easy to see where they could end up in a couple of years. Right now the US is poised to move to Chip & Pin or Chip and signature, so retailers will have to upgrade their terminals. And just like in Europe most will include NFC technology. So Apple have been smart and adopted a less optimal technology largely because someone else is paying for the hardware roll out. And partnerships with Visa, Mastercard Amex etc make perfect sense. 

But one of the smartest investors Chamath Palihapitiya thinks Apple have pulled off a masterstroke. He believes Apple is poised to disrupt the global banking infrastructure in the next decade or so and earn trillions of dollars. He likens the deals with the credit card firms to the way they got the record labels to support itunes. And he thinks that – eventually – an iPhone will act as a POS terminal so you then don’t actually need the credit card. Very interesting.

It is worth watching the Tim Cook TV interview for a good take on where Apple is and some hints on what’s next. Asked about TV, he says its still stuck in the 70s and then politely declines to talk about their plans for the space. And he also talks about the move into enterprise and the IBM partnership. (this long Bloomberg interview covers a lot of these issues too)

Another piece of the jigsaw is the Apple announcement on privacy, making the point that advertising is a small part of their business and hence they can be very focused on privacy. It also makes the point that Apple don’t cooperate with the NSA – which begs the question who else can say that?

Google & Nest

The $3bn acquisition of Nest did more than position Google as a key player in both the Internet of Things and the connected home. It also injected 300 people with an Apple DNA into Google. The CEO was instrumental in the launch of both the iPod and the original iPhone, and at Nest he attracted lots of Apple people.

This interview is a good reminder that Google value design thinking too.

Fashion tech

We have covered Londons dominance in FinTech before, but as well as leading the field in the Financial world London is a major player in Fashion Tech. This FT piece looks at Burberry as a great example of a luxury brand embracing digital and others using tech to show at London Fashion week. The Burberry Kisses campaign from last year is also worth a look – not least for showing how digital marketing is maturing 

Metrics & ROI

Preparing for a workshop for a Financial Services brand we have been looking at best practice in metrics. As ever the key is having a small number of important metrics to focus on and ensuring that everyone can see (and understand) what’s going on. The Don of analytics  Avinash Kaushik shows us how simple a dashboard can and should be. His latest look at Mobile measurement is essential reading too.

The desire for comparison means we often measure the same as everyone else, but here we see that a less usual measure can be really useful too. Weekly users is a lot more valuable metric than monthly users for many businesses.

Twitter – what’s next?

Comments from the new twitter CFO around improving the timeline in Twitter caused consternation. This is a thoughtful piece on how Twitter can evolve to deliver on the timeline that so many value and provide other ways for more discreet conversations 

Quick reads

Bubble anyone? A veteran VC doesn’t think so, but worries there is too much money going to startups, and that the burn rates are unsustainable for most of them.

A good case study on responsive design and ecommerce from long time Fix readers at Schuh 

Long article on the riser and rise of GoPro

The Economist takes a look at programmatic. Good round up on where adtech is and some of the key issues. Our favourite quote;

“We are only where search advertising was in 2001,”

Once called the Ministry of Magazines, IPC is probably managing the transistion from print to digital better than most. Newly rebranded as Time, this is a good interview with the man now running the business globally.

Finally the rise of growth hacking is seen by some as an indictment of marketings failings, but to us the technique of product/market fit is just modern marketing. This piece looks at how engineering works as a marketing tool. We think modern marketers work to the Malcolm X / Jean Paul Satre mantra By any means necessary. 

Mobile Fix – September 12

The huge hype of the Apple launch reminds us just how far mobile has come in the last few years. TV news coverage and stories in every newspaper. Celebs, fashion journalists and Rupert Murdoch at the event. 

Apple isn’t just a tech company anymore. They are a lifestyle. A hybrid of fashion, content, devices, services and U2. The mycube from that Simpsons episode never felt more insightful;

I see you’re admiring our myCube

It’s fueled by dreams and powered by imagination.

(Homer) What does it do?

You should ask yourself what can I do for it

The new iPhones are pretty much as the leaks suggested – and whilst Android fanboys make the point the spec is virtually the same as the 2 year old Nexus 4 – we think they will sell really well. Ben Evans has a good take on how the product and pricing hits Android – and particularly Samsung – hard.

It’s likely that the imminent Nexus 6 from Google – (& Motorola) will be a more innovative device, but that’s unlikely to dent iPhone sales.

The Watch also lived up to most of the hype but has divided opinion – especially given the price point. It’s telling that no-one seems to be talking about battery life

Our take is that it won’t replace many peoples current watch. If you still wear a watch, it’s probably as much a piece of jewelry as it’s a timepiece. Will people want to wear something that’s the same as everyone elses?

But some people have more than one watch and we can see the Apple watch being added to that repertoire – particularly for sports.

For those people who have stopped wearing a watch as their phone tells the time, this could be good enough to tempt them back. Once people can actually try the watch we’ll have a better idea – one horology expert does rave about the level of finish and the detail. Given he wears a $40k vintage Omega it’s a pretty positive viewpoint.

So one thing we should expect is lots of ways to customize the watch, with more straps and more apps offering unique dials. Just like Swatch did in the 80s, partnerships with fashion and art brands will keep the device fresh. Remember the Japanese phone market has lots of partnerships with fashion brands like Marrimekko and Pucci. Expect a Kanye West watchface as part of his next album promotion.

But the big problem with the watch is that it’s not a wearable. It is actually – like most of this sector – a peripheral 

Wear an Apple watch without having your iPhone in your pocket and we suspect it’s pretty useless. Like the Nike Fuelband we gave up on as they didn’t have an Android app.

And if you have the iPhone in your pocket, the question is what does the watch do, that is that useful. But we can expect lots of app developers to focus on this issue. And, as someone on Twitter said, Do Google put Google Now on this device or keep it back for Android?

Pay is a big deal and Apple have revived the NFC market. The only issue is how they persuade retailers to invest in the instore devices, but that should just be a matter of time. A big surprise is the fact Apple don’t know what you buy – which erodes a potential advantage for their ad sales.

Overall Tuesday supports the view that all Apple really want is to keep selling premium price devices. And they are building Anchors to keep people in the iPhone franchise; the wallet, health kit, home kit etc. And as the U2 music spam showed, they will use content as an Anchor too. Will they buy Netflix next?

Probably the best commentary we have read is Jason Calcanis, who is very positive. And yes, we’ll be buying a Plus to replace our Nexus.

As more details emerge we’ll get deeper into Pay in the coming weeks.

(One more thing. Apple now has a mobile optimised site. Finally.)

Another interesting peripheral.

Motorola have some interesting product around. The Hint is really intriguing –an in ear headset that you can speak to and cintrol your phone. Bluetooth Headsets suffer from the Ken syndrome – most people who wear them aren’t very nice. Maybe this can revive the sector.

The Fire phone

The Amazon fire is finally coming to the UK – on an exclusive with O2. It’s hard to see many people choosing this over a new iPhone. But the pricing is very aggressive – and in the US the price has dropped to 99 cents. So whilst the strategic logic of Amazon having their own phone remains, getting significant distribution is proving a problem.

We are still convinced that Amazon will make the Fireflly technology available on other devices. This is the most interesting feature of the phone and makes everything identifiable and hence buyable. What’s the point of restricting it to the few people with a Fire phone, when you could add it to the Amazon app on millions of peoples iPhones and Androids? In time for Christmas.

Video & Facebook

It looks like the Ice Bucket challenge is over. As well as a great case study for fundraising and social it’s also possibly the first mass participation video meme. Most previous memes on social have been about sharing rather than making content – remember the old 1 9 90 rule where I % create content, 9% share it and 90% just view?  Whilst the % sharing has been growing, the % creating hasn’t.

But this showed that people now can and will create and share video. And even more interestingly a huge proportion of this video lives on Facebook, rather than just being on YouTube. Facebook had 17m Ice Bucket videos shared and seen by 440m people in total.

Facebook have been conscious of how big video is for them, but only now are they showing viewcounts. The baked in ability to share on Facebook is a big advantage over YouTube. A new Beyonce video got 2.4m views on Facebook in the first 4 hours after release – against just a few thousand on YouTube 

This NYT piece looks at how Facebook video has grown but also looks at how media brands are using social to drive views.

Facebook are being quick to push the use of  video to their customers

China 

More on the O2O Retail (Offline to Online) partnership in China that we mentioned last week. The intention is to fight back against the dominance of Alibaba and one of our readers in China pointed us to this video of the Alibaba founder telling the story of the business

As they prepare for the IPO they are moving into mobile games – where rival Tencent is very strong. The Chinese BAT vertical stacks show how keeping customers in your stack on mobile is so crucial.

The O2O article gets into some good detail on why Chinese retail is different and also looks as some of the most recent BAT investments.

Quick Read 

Microsoft are killing the Nokia brand name (and Windows Phone) and focusing on Lumia and Windows. Not sure that’s such a smart move.

Twitter have added a buy button. Is eCommerce going to be big for them?

One of the smart people we worked with at WPP was Jeff Cole from the Centre or the Digital Future. His views on the future of advertising are worth a listen

One of the smartest Internet of things ideas is finally launched – Tiles are such a good idea, but we’ll probably wait to version 2

The US NFL is starting talks over their next TV deal. TV companies are bidding up prices as live games are seen as an edge over online services, But they are talking to Google et al and their VP of media says; 

Selling game-streaming rights to an online company is a matter of “when, not if,”

Over here consultant Claire Enders told the Royal Television Society that youth is deserting TV, with a 22% fall amongst 4 15 year olds. Are they all watching YouTube?

And more evidence that TV is changing; Sky have expanded the targetihg options for their AdSmart service. Brands can now choose the households their ads are seen in based on postcode as well as MOSAIC data etc. And you can use your own data to target.

Ages ago we mentioned that Sainsbury was trialing a mobile shopping service in Clerkenwell and Mile End. The Shop and Scan seems to have gone well and its being rolled out to more stores. Despite using QR codes. Why hasn’t some mobile expert explained that QR codes don’t work?

Mobile adtech firm Medialets have shared lots of data on mobile advertising.     

Cards are probably the biggest step forward in how mobile is put together, but they are still misunderstood by many. This is a good guide to what they are. And this is a good guide to how to use them on Twitter.

Finally…    John Batelle is one of our favourite bloggers. He runs a very successful digital media business and really gets the whole space, although he admits he was lateish to mobile. He has written a good summary of his thoughts on where mobile is now and where its going. Well worth reading.