Category Archives: disruption

Mobile Fix – May 8

Retail

Just about every industry and sector is being disrupted by the rapid adoption of new behaviors driven by mobile. But one prominent canary in the coal mine is retail. It’s no longer smart to pay retail and the proliferation of coupons, discount shopping stores – and having Amazon reviews and prices just a click away – have meant some retailers have been very focused on testing and learning what can be done with mobile.

These innovations, and the battle for delivery, mean people embrace an omini channel approach – and the challenges of attribution are all too familiar to retailers. But it’s clear that the mobile element will continue to grow; an interesting McKinsey study on Mobile retail in Korea shows CAGR of 165% over the last few years. The study also shows that some groups gravitate to mobile rather than desktop and the consumer decision journey is considerably faster on mobile. On many measures Korea is a more developed mobile market and as the West get better at delivering effective mobile shopping experiences we can expect to follow some of these trends.

You could argue that it is easier for a smart retailer to learn how to use modern digital than it is for a tech firm to learn the art of retail. That would be supported by the fact Apple paid ex Burberry  Angela Ahrendts $73m in her first year running their retail operation.

This piece suggests department stores like Macys are better positioned than Amazon etc as they have solved the last mile issue that plague delivery – pointing out that Amazon spent $6.6bn on delivery and made less than half of that back in shipping fees. (Not sure whether Amazon Prime is factored in here).  The study is worth downloading. And there is some more information on one of the Macy apps that give users instore offers.

One of the stores that does well in the study is Nordstrom who we feature often in our Digital Transformation workshops. They are testing a simple straightforward service – curbside collection . The customer simply texts or calls as they arrive outside and someone comes out with their purchase. It could be done with Beacons but sometimes simple tech is better than complicated.

And Target has released a corporate video showing how they use mobile tech to make shopping easier.

If you want to dig deeper this Boston Consulting Group article is a good read – and their data shows being a digital leader correlates with better EBITDA.

Video & NewTV

The Mayweather Pacquiao fight this week was a great demonstration of the power of TV – although it also showed how business models other than advertising can be powerful alternatives. PayPerView is one end of the arc that extends to watching on Netflix and buying box sets – the user is paying directly fro the content and there is little or no room for advertising. Although the Burger King being part of the Mayweather entourage was interesting product placement. But was it really worth a $1m?

The evening also demonstrated some of the potential for Periscope – with lots of streams of the fight being shared. But Twitter CEO invited some criticism when he tweeted that Periscope was the winner on the night. Messing with the money that flows from pay per view isn’t going to sit well with traditional media companies and rights owners. And with Twitter owning Periscope their good relationship with some of the best media brands might come under pressure as live streaming grows. It took YouTube a long time to come up with tools that combat piracy and doing the same with a live stream is going to be hard.

The old adage that my enemies enemy is my friend plays out a lot in tech, so its not too surprising that Meerkat is getting closer to Facebook with their latest update. Given the potential for upsetting media brands we don’t anticipate Facebook rushing to embrace Meerkat though some suggest an acquisition. An older more established live streaming service called YouNow is getting now some publicity

The video upfronts took place in New York last week and the hunger to take TV money online continues, as this FT round shows

The tools to make the most of video are improving quickly; Ferris is interesting and we love TouchCast which is essentially a full TV studio on your iPad. Take a look at this interactive FT video made with TouchCast.

Curation

In a world of algorithms we still see a place for human judgement and taste, as curation is one of the best ways to drive discovery. Essentially great retailers curate what they sell – whether that’s one of the 3 excellent bookshops on Broadway Market or a concept store like Collette, Dover Street Market or CorsaComo. Because they know that good curation drives sales  – as people discover something they didn’t know they wanted.

Apple get this  – that’s why Apple chose to launch the watch in this sort of store (with help from Angela Ahrendts)  – and they are going to apply it to Beats too; as well as Zane Low they are hiring other Radio1 people. We think that music and Beats will be a big topic at next months Developer Conference even though it is rumoured Apple are having trouble sorting the deals with the music industry. Our money is still on some sort of partnership with Tidal.

Instagram also recognize the power of human taste and have launched @music – an account “dedicated to exploring music around the globe, from those who create it to the community around it,”

Our own RCKSCK project is paused whilst we think through how we balance the human element with the algorithm.

Evolution of online advertising

A new study suggests that online ads are no more likely to irritate than ads in traditional media even when seen many times. As we always say; People don’t dislike ads, they just dislike bad ads and irrelevant ones. We have the opportunity to make better ads and ensure they are only seen by people they are relevant to. But as an industry we still seem to take the easy option and pump out rubbish ads to everyone.

Following our piece last week on ads being just for the poor, as everyone else avoids them, we had a fascinating conversation with PageFair. These guys have found a way to unblock the adblockers and serve up ‘good’ ads – restoring revenues for the publishers and getting good response rates from people who see very few ads.

The PageFair team have a good view on what’s happening with adblocking and there are some frightening developments. A Chinese mobile browser that strips out ads in order to reduce the data used – thus saving the user money  – is growing really quickly in India and China. And new techniques are stripping out in app ads too.

We need to get better at delivering ads or we risk killing the digital ad model. A short piece on Marissa Mayer is notable for this great quote;

“’Native’ advertising is the fancy word that the digital world has chosen to put on the fact that the banner ad is not going to last long-term,” 

We sort of agree  – but it’s not all doom and gloom. Rich experiences still have a place across devices and this new Infiniti brand experience from our friends at ResponsiveAds shows what’s possible. We are looking for partners across Europe; Publishers, Brands and Agencies. Who is going to be first?

The data that enables smart digital advertising keeps getting better – IBM and Facebook have anew partnership with great potential. And the TrueView model we talked about last week is now available on programmatic buys.

But to get the most from these opportunities you need to take digital advertising seriously.  The mirage of organic reach in social causing people to talk about your brand with their friends has – surprise surprise – melted away. And clever people know that we are back to an old fashioned model where you have to pay to reach the people who may buy your product.

But with the rich palette of tools and techniques now available – and the huge reach – it’s a medium that rewards smart thinking whether you are chasing immediate response or brand metrics

Quick reads

During our keynote at the recent Google Conversion event in Dublin we talked of the 4 pillars of modern digital, Data, Design, Measurement & Testing. This video from Android demonstrates how design and testing made a big difference to Style community app the Hunt.

We spent some time this week talking about the News industry and this provocative piece sums up the challenge and the opportunity.

A series of articles in the FT looks at the ad business. This considers the changes in the industry wrought by digital. This one looks at how the various social platforms offer advertising – best viewed on desktop.

This is an interesting look at how WeChat is changing Chinese media. Lots to be learnt from China.

Benedict Evans was in town last week, presenting at the Rutberg summit we spoke at and at the FT conference. The video of his FT talk is here – for some reason I can’t link direct so scroll down to Video 20. If you have some time lots of the other videos are worth watching too. One tip – you can watch YouTube videos at a faster pace – we find 1.5 works well for conference talks – although Benedict talks almost as fact as me, so normal speed is best for his

Finally – a friend shared a new project he is developing and we have had a lot of fun with it so thought we should share. SoundClash lets you challenge your friends with a music track (delivered via YouTube video) and they then respond. If you like your chooons this is great way to lose an afternoon.

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & Content

Our clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobile and social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.

If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3500 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.

 

Mobile Fix – May 1

Essential Video?

It’s pretty clear that video is a key element of the mobile experience for many users. And many brands are making the most of the opportunity. This new research from Google emphasizes why it’s so essential and YouTube CEO Susan Woiccicka flagged up the scale with this quote;

YouTube is now reaching more people in the oh-so-coveted 18-49 year old age demographic on mobile than any TV network is period

Add to that the fact that Facebook is now doing 4 billion video views a day (up from 3 billion just a few months ago) and it’s clear video is a must. (Want more proof? Messenger now has Video calling)

But it’s complicated. One quick example  – do you go portrait or landscape when you shoot video for mobile? The vast majority of video is landscape and we see that most people change their phone to landscape to watch video. But capturing video on mobile is in some ways easier in portrait – take a look at the millions of Ice Bucket Challenge videos for proof. Vines are portrait and so too are Periscope and Meerkat. Now SnapChat is encouraging this too.

So porting over your 30 second TV spot is even more naive. If Modern Family can be shot on an iPhone so too can your mobile video ads.

More thinking here on how complicated the market is once you step outside GAFA – the industry needs some standards.

Improving Ad formats 

We made a schoolboy error in Fix last week when we said advertisers only paid for TrueView ads when someone watched past the first 5 seconds. The actual deal – as pointed out by a couple of YouTubers who subscribe to Fix – is that advertisers only pay when a user watches up to 30 seconds or, if the ad is shorter than 30 seconds, you pay on completion.

TrueView is probably the ideal modern ad format – (sort of) permission based with brands confident that their message has actually been seen. And the data on people who choose to view and choose not to view enhances Google understanding of the user. This is a good review of some ads that have used this opportunity well

Yahoo are launching their own native video ads, which auto play – with the sound muted – and brands are charged when the ad has played for 3 seconds. Facebook charge as soon as their video ads start playing. With viewability a major issue in video we seem to be taking baby steps to improve things.

Whilst a traditional pre roll tends to be cheaper but sitting through a 30 second ad, so you can see that clip your friend shared with you, is a poor brand experience to subject anyone to. Back to our Missing Metric; if you could measure how many people you were pissing off, you really wouldn’t do it.

The rise of Adblockers – covered in some depth buy the FT here – is one symptom of this. (And they are developing Adblocker tools for mobile too) The Google Contributor button is another – read this passionate piece about the threat posed by these tools.

Along with the ads Spotify subject you to if you don’t go premium, one might wonder if we are training people to avoid ads? With a subscription model for YouTube imminent are ads going to be just for poor people?

We need to innovate and develop better ad formats. Ones that are Viewable, Noticeable & Relevant.

<Plug> Our work with ResponsiveAds is predicated on this thinking – take a look at this rich media ad that adapts to whatever screen it is seen on. Resize the desktop browser and see how it adapts instantly. Imagine that the message is optimized based on the user and the context – all data triggers available in the media buy. It’s one build and one tag, so production costs are slashed and the tracking is simplified.  If we focus on this type of advertising we might have a chance to counter the ad blockers and the business models that squeeze out advertising. (To find out more about these formats get in touch) </Plug>

Programmatic – the Creative opportunity

This is a good infographic pointing out how complicated the current way of buying media is and how the programmatic approach solves this.

As part of an interesting collection of digitally focused articles the FT has a look at programmatic, quoting our friends at Infectious amongst others. There is a slightly hyped claim about thousands of commercials all tailored for a specific audience.

Advertising has always treated people as strangers but now the data triggers that Programmatic generates enable brands to recognize people more. Yet most campaigns are still just a handful of executions Creative optimization is the answer and the space is evolving quickly – Adobe have bought a tech company in this space and there is some interesting work happening around the world – including China.

We are very focused on this opportunity with @Route55 and really keen to talk with anyone who is interested in this huge opportunity; clients who want to learn, tech companies who want to partner and media owners who want to profit from this.

Wall Street

More tech companies reported this week and Apple continued their amazing performance with a 33% increase in earnings.  iPhone sales were 40% up on the previous year and Chinese revenue grew by 70% – becoming the second most important market . The only disappointment is that iPad sales continue to flatline.

Twitter were hit by their results being leaked and the stock dropped 20% - but user growth was good and they reached 300m MAUs – up 18% year on year. Revenue missed the target though.

In the fuss over the leak some interesting news was slightly overlooked – Twitter have partnered with DoubleClick to improve conversion measurement and allow DC advertisers to access Twitter inventory.  And they continued their spending spree with the acquisition of Tellapart which is a retailer focused ad platform with a reputation for very smart retargeting. Both look like good moves and we know brands that are having great success with Twitter.

Baidu released their results too and whilst they beat analyst expectations, the surge in mobile (now 50% of their revenue) gave them the same issues as Google – a mobile click is (currently) worth less than a desktop one.

If you only have time to read one thing from todays Fix I would make it the earnings call transcript for the Baidu results. It’s quite a long read but you get a great sense of the Baidu Vertical Stack and there is lots to learn from the way they are involved in so many areas. (More good stuff on mobile & China here)

The Watch

The Apple distribution for the Watch is interesting. You can’t buy one in the Apple stores but you can in some of our favourite shops; Dover Street Market, Collette in Paris, Corner in Berlin etc. This is good positioning  – in theory. But when you see 300 people queuing down Dover Street – who are clearly not the usual clientele for cool stores – you begin to wonder. After dealing with these scalpers day after day, I suspect the stores will be less interested in future.

The video is now available of the Jonny Ive and Marc Newson interview at the Conde Nast luxury conference we mentioned last week.

We have seen the Watch out and about – albeit worn by a VC and a start up founder rather than civilians. The general view is it’s great but lets wait and see. This Guardian review is a good take – good hardware let down by OK software – particularly third party apps. Of course most of these were developed in isolation and we will quickly see Watch apps being truly optimized for the experience.

For various irritating reasons ours won’t shop until June – if anyone can speed that up we would be ever so grateful?

Quick Reads

A former colleague has shared the GroupM view on Data Privacy. Essential reading

Google Now is a glimpse of the future of Mobile. Contextually triggered Cards giving you the information you need then and there. Now over 100 top apps are integrated with Now on Android – making it a strong contender for the Home Page of mobile. At least on Android. Still no word on when or if Now will make an app for the Watch. Well worth playing with and watching to see how this develops.

How Google Ventures think about developing great websites

Foursquare hasn’t been bought by Yahoo – yet – but there is a recognition they have carved out a valuable niche.

This is a good profile of former Googler Nikesh Arora and his new role leading investments for Softbank. We still think they will make a play for a western ad focused business.

Now former VC Saul Klein discussing the future of the media industry

The UK is the most developed online Grocery market in the world but after 15years penetration is only around 5%. In the US Amazon (and Google) are pushing this but it’s Instacart that seems to be getting most traction – now valued at $2bn. In the UK you can get a refrigerated box for your garden so deliveries can be made when you are out. It’s no weirder than having deliveries made to the boot of your Audi.

Finally – Fix readers probably don’t need reminding of this but in a world that is changing so rapidly being curious is an essential skill. If you need some help understanding how your industry is changing  – and what that probably means – our consulting might be useful. If you’d like to discuss how we might help get in touch

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & Content

Our clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobileand social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.

If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3500 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.

Mobile Fix – April 24

Wall Street

It’s that time of the quarter again, with GAFA etc reporting earnings to Wall, Street and – in the process – sharing some insights into how their business is doing.

Facebook went first and whilst revenues were close to targets the fact their profits were down due to increased R&D costs was of some concern with analysts.

The law of big numbers (which means growth has to flatten off at some time) has yet to kick in – with monthly active users up 13%. For marketers the figures on the continuing shift to mobile - almost 800 million daily mobile users – up 31% year on year  and 46% increase in mobile revenue has to be the best news.

Yahoo missed their earnings as they continue to turn the business around – but mobile growth and some financial engineering around their Japanese business did prove attractive to Wall Street. The changes to their search partnership with Bing sounds like they could prove interesting.

Google showed a 12% increase in revenue but the cost per click was down  - reflecting the growth of mobile which continues to be discounted.

Amazon showed a small loss as expected but for the first time gave figures on their Cloud business Amazon Web Services – making around $5bn a year.

Algorithm changes

The other big news this week was the awfully named Mobilegeddon – the change to the Google algorithm that got lots of slightly hysterical general news coverage. It is unclear as to when exactly the changes happened and the effects will take a while to surface but our friends at econsultancy have shared some practical advice.

And Facebook tweaked their algorithm too- seeking to better balance content from your friends with that from publishers.  If you have time, this long post from Ben Thompson is a good look at the implications of this switch.

Google Fi

Google continues to focus on improving how people can access the internet, with balloons in Africafibre in Austin and other US cities and now Fi – their MVNO service.

Their Mobile Virtual Network Operator –  which we floated as an idea back in 2006 – isn’t quite as ambitious as expected. Initially it’s only available to Nexus 6 users in certain US cities but the feature set is really interesting; talking and texting switches to wifi when available and data is a simple $10 per Gb – with a rebate for what you don’t use.

We don’t expect this ever to become a fully fledged alternative to Sprint or TMobile; their launch partners. Instead we think it is an exercise to show what’s possible – and encourage the industry to improve. A little like their Nexus products do for other hardware manufacturers. Switching automatically to the best available network (be that wifi or another MNO) makes perfect sense for the user – and hence for Google. Fi is – on part – designed to push the operators to work better together.

Facebook Hello

This week we saw Facebook also move a little closer to what an operator does with a new Android app called Hello. This uses your messenger contacts to mediate your phone calls – telling who is called and enabling you to block nuisance numbers. Coming the same week as WhatsApp allows you to call people as well as message them the inevitable redefining of the phone call is starting to happen.

This tweet we saw is a good summary of how the MNOs view Facebook;
Vodafone CEO Vittorio Colao: on Facebook’s free-of-cost internet plan: “It is almost like Zuck does philanthropy, but with my money.”

Benjamin Evans has a good take on this struggle and doesn’t believe the Over The Top players like Google and Facebook want to be Mobile Network Operators – but they are going to drive change in how MNOs do business.

Some other interesting news from Facebook is around their desire to influence how people build apps for mobile. Famous for trumpeting the use of HTML5 for their first mobile efforts and equally famous for switching back to native to improve performance they are now pushing React Native.

This is a possible solution to the need to develop separately for iOS and Android and will be watched carefully. We have seen various hybrid tools promise to solve the issues of time and cost inherent in building twice, but the compromises have usually proved too much.

Digital & Mobile advertising continues to boom

New data from the IAB in the US and the UK evidence the ongoing health of digital advertising.

Mobile revenue in the US is up 76% for 2014 and is now worth slightly more than banners ads – and the digital total is just shy of $50bn a year. TV made $66bn in 2014 – down from $75 in 2013.

Here in the UK the total digital spend is now over £7bn, with mobile up 63% to £1.6bn.

Marin has a new report which looks at Mobile advertising around the world and is useful for benchmarking. And Google have published a guide to programmatic for brands which is full of useful advice on how to get the most out of digital. One thing we fully endorse is the need to stop building digital ads in Flash – but we would say that wouldn’t we as we are helping launch Responsive Ads in Europe; really rich media built in HTML5 that adapts to whatever screen it is seen on – dramatically reducing production costs and improving both impact and engagement.

There are a couple of clouds on the horizon though. Some App developers claim that they are bring priced out of Facebook and are looking to TV as an alternative. And comscore have shared some slight depressing research showing that around half of all digital ads in Europe aren’t viewable by their audience. We still have more to do to unlock the full potential of digital advertising.

Google Conversions

We continue to believe that  – for most brands – getting GAFA right is the best way of ensuring they take maximum advantage of the huge opportunities in mobile; essentially modern digital.

This week I keynoted at a Google event in Dublin for 300 of their top customers. It was great fun but the key thought I left with is just how much potential there is for smart brands to do more with Google. I learned huge amounts from 2 Google speakers ( @jos_tweets and @danielwaisberg )who talked through some of the measurement possibilities in Google Analytics. Including easy ways to track offline events and even use loyalty cards as a means of measuring ad effectiveness. @OptimiseOrDie then have great advice on testing and avoiding the many pitfalls. Finally @lukew gave a masterclass on designing for the mobile world.

Much of what they discussed applies equally well to Facebook or Yahoo etc – people can get real competitive advantage by being really good at this stuff because the odds are your competitors aren’t taking it that seriously.

You should be looking at how you get more than your fair share of value from GAFA and others. Once the videos of the sessions are up I will share them in Fix

Quick Reads

Facebook have some good advice on video – making the point that much of the impact is delivered in the first 10 seconds. It is surprising people don’t work harder at how to get cut through on Googles True View videos where you only pay when someone watches after the first 5 seconds. the whole ad if less than  30 secs or at least 30 secs of a longer one

A good take on the US TV market from the smart people at Redef.

The quest to improve/ solve delivery continues - Amazon will now deliver to the boot of your Audi in Munich. Is the next step a posh Instacart where you get paid if you take packages for friends and neighbours too?

Jonny Ives and Mark Newson took their Watch pitch to the Conde Nast Luxury Conference

Martin Sorrell shares lessons from Jack Ma of Alibaba. They are already valued higher than Amazon with just 5% of their revenue outside China. They plan to grow that to 50%.

Snapchat is changing how its sells ads.

We went to a fascinating Instagram event the other week – with Paul Smith speaking – where they shared some early success stories from brands using Instagram. These cases studies are here.

There is an instagram app for the Watch – do you really want to see your friends latest picture on your wrist?

We mentioned the other week that the elephant in the room for Spotify etc is that YouTube is the biggest player in music streaming – this article explains more about this.

And this long New Yorker piece on the guy broke the music industry is worth reading to better understand music piracy.

Finally…. I am out and about next week at the BSAC Film TV & Games conference and then at the Rutberg Summit. Rather than pontificating, I will be listening and learning. If you are at either event do come and say hello

Mobile Fix – April 17

Google So the EU is finally coming for Google. Over the past few years lots of people have made the pilgrimage to Brussels to talk about their experiences with Google – some asking for and getting anonymity. Google clearly refute the claims but it’s hard to see how they can avoid a hefty fine. The EU is also looking at Android. So this one will run and run.

In a lovely bit of irony the people whose complaints  started this whole investigation will have some more reasons to complain about Google next Tuesday. Foundem – a vertical search engine – apparently never got the memo about mobile and their site is not optimized.

Benedict Evans has a new blog about Google and the challenges that Mobile gives them  – as ever, worth reading.

And it looks like they are emulating Facebook with a custom audience type tool where you can target people based on the customer email addresses you upload. This shift from advertising that treats people as strangers to a model where you recognize people  – and ideally modify your message accordingly – makes so much sense. They are also looking at ways of letting people play with apps without actually downloading them.

And on YouTube the much rumoured subscription model appears to be on its way – with an email to video creators suggesting they will share in the revenue. Trying to reward the creators makes lots of sense as other platforms are attempting to tempt them away. And given the strength of YouTube as a source for music a move to a subscription model similar to Spotify etc also makes sense. Given how important video is for the young market, that spends the most on music, could this be an advantage over audio only services like Spotify? Now that a video view counts towards the Billboard chart, we can expect a continued focus on visuals – and as the Beyonce exclusive on iTunes showed, video can make a big difference.

Another innovation is Cards where you can add these to your videos for better interactivity – essentially upgrading annotation. For more on YouTube this video of Googles Matt Brittan from the recent Guardian event is worth watching

Facebook Facebook are revealing more about Atlas and this look at their approach to cross device is a good barometer for the potential Atlas has to solve the big issues facing digital marketing. For good insight into how brands are using Facebook, Nanigans data is pretty valuable. Their tools are used by some of the smartest brands (including eBay and Zynga) and their latest report shows the key trends for CPM, CPA etc and which products are growing share of spend. The data makes great reading for Facebook – clickthroughs up dramatically year on year and CPCs are reduced for ecommerce, although not for gaming.

Yahoo Yahoo seem to be getting better at their PR – they are finally getting some acknowledgement of the progress they are making. This profile of Marissa is pretty complementary and gives a good insight into how they are approaching things. Another story from the same issue looks at how they developed their mobile ad platform in a remarkably short time – folding in Flurry along the way.

With a good product set and still impressive reach they are well positioned except for one thing – they don’t have the first party data that makes Google, Facebook and even Twitter so effective for brands. Now lots of people do have a yahoo profile but a huge amount are dormant and as good as useless. Mine is linked to some old email address I no longer have access to.

But they have been clever about how to overcome this; their purchase of aviate - which allows users to better organise their apps – gave them a glimpse of what apps users have. Buying Flurry also gave them a great data set on which apps people have  – across both Android and iOS (Aviate only works on Android).

The latest rumour links them with buying FourSquare – which would give them the location data that is becoming so valuable for GAFA. They have lots of cash from their Alibaba stake and FourSquare would be a good use of money. And the Yahoo product skills could help reposition FourSquare a little as they do seem to have lost their mojo.

newTV We have been using the term newTV for years as it captures the changing nature of how people watch long form video. The pace of that change is accelerating and juxtaposition of multiple devices with the emergence of quad play business models means the number of people playing in this space is growing fast too. Like the fabled answer to the question why rob banks? (because that’s where the money is) we know why everyone from GAFA to the operators are infatuated by newTV. The combination of ad revenues and subscriptions make it a hugely profitable industry.

But the music industry used to be hugely profitable and so did News. The changes wrought by technology don’t always lead ot more money and the people in the old TV market worry that the revenue will start to evaporate if/when the model changes. A new Accenture report thinks the worlds love affair with the TV may be coming to an end. Reporting double digit drops in viewing various types of content on the TV screen. Much of this viewing has migrated to a second screen and the report argues that it is on these mobile screens that the industry need to win.

Eric Scherer of France televisions tends to agree;

“The TV industry will have to work on a mobile-first strategy. Not a digital-first strategy, but a mobile-first strategy, because mobile is now the first screen, and it’s taking time away from the TV.”

The video of his presentation at Mip last week is well worth watching. In it he mentions Meerkat and Persicope as the latest evidence of change and others are equally worried about torrent streaming app Popcorn Time which is now available on iOs with a bit of hacking about.

The talent in TV remains its key advantage and this long profile of HBO CEO  Richard Pepler reminds us that creativity is at the heart of the industry and that’s what people continue to value – even if only with their attention rather than their money in some cases.

On the same tip our FireTV stick  has just arrived and first impressions are good – and sales are reported to have been excellent. Along with the Chromecast and Apple TV the TV set becomes just another screen for content delivered over the internet. And the time to watch this content – along with all that Box set binging  – has to be eating away at the time spent watching the traditional TV programmes that so many brands still rely on for reach.

The Watch Having sold out within a matter of hours the pre launch is meeting the Apple goal of keeping people talking about the Watch. There have been dozens of reviews of the reviews of trying the watch and the general view is most people like it. As we have argued before the real test is whether these early adopters will continue to evangelise once they finally get their hands on it – or it on their hands.

A lot of that depends on the apps and a Fix friend at VC Balderton pointed us to a great blog post from their Citymapper friends. Here they talk through the design process for taking a hugely successful phone app to the watch – and the relentless focus needed to decide what to take out. Never has the Mies van der Rohe term Less is More been more apt.

The other challenge for Watch apps is how they handle notifications. Already overused by many apps, the watch could drive people to turn them off. This good piece makes the point of over use well and suggests we will get a solution –eventually. We need a great artificial intelligence effort to comb through our information, assess the urgency and relevance, and use a deep knowledge of who we are and what we think is important to deliver the right notifications at the right time

Essentially that is a version of what we need for advertising – real cleverness about the right time for the right message.

Amazon We spoke at the London Book Fair this week and one of the other speakers looked at Amazon and declared it wasn’t as big a threat as people thought – largely down to the fact that they aren’t that good at hardware as kindle sales seem to have plateaued and their phones and tablets haven’t sold well.

We disagree – see our comments on the FireTV stick earlier and the Kindle is a great success as software.

One other part of the business that people underestimate is AWS – their web services business that powers huge numbers of start up and corporates. This array of services has given Amazon a strong position in Cloud computing and is growing at 40% a year. Now they have added machine learning to the tools – democratizing a skill that is highly valued amongst many tech start ups. You still need a smart person to work out how to get the best from this tool but you no longer need a number of smart engineers to get into this space.

Quick Reads

Clever retail technology from US retailers Kate Spades

How the New York Times is going mobile first Wall Street has heard all the noise about Agencys rebates and si downgrading the holding companies as a result.

A look back at the early days of Buzzfeed and how they find the early viral hits

The idea of data drive creative we are exploring with @Route55 is getting traction – now Celtra have a product in the space. We believe the value is in how you use the tools, as much as the tool itself.

Deep Linking in apps is one of the most promising trends in mobile – but it has yet to deliver.

This Pew research on how the smartphone is essential for Travel is a good read

Our last Fix went out on Good Friday as many people missed it. Some of the content was good – with some very interesting data - and is still timely, so you may find it useful to read it here.

Finally …The digital industry continues to wrestle with ad fraud. The debates around viewability add to the murkiness of digital and provide excuses for laggards to – well – lag. Less than half of video ads were viewable last year. And in a great example of research telling you what you already know someone has done a study showing that ads that are viewable perform better than those that are not. We believe digital advertising has to deliver in 3 areas; it must be Viewable, Noticeable & Relevant. We have some work to do on all three.

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & Content

Our clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobileand social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.

If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3500 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.

Mobile Fix – March 27

3 weeks to go

Before we get into what’s happening now, it’s worth remembering that on April 21 everything changes. That’s the date the new Google Algorithm drops and it’s likely to really shake things up. By rewarding sites that are mobile friendly with a better ranking, it will dramatically change the results shown for many searches. Now the whole point of these changes is to improve the user experience and Google doesn’t pre announce much of the details. So the full effect – including issues such as how apps influence results – will only become apparent on the day.

It may be worth having your creative technologists shelve their Watch apps and Virtual Reality experiments for the moment, to look at something that will have a big effect on your business in the very near future.

FacebookIt has felt like a Facebook week this week. Last Friday we saw an excellent event showcasing Atlas and it was clear this is a major shift for the whole industry. Essentially Atlas will let you take all the smart targeting and measurement you are doing within Facebook (to work out who the really important people for your business) and amplify it by finding the same people across the internet.By doing this they solve the crucial issues of targeting, measuring reach and optimising frequency. Across devices. And highlight the fact that cookie based systems have inherent flaws on desktop as well as mobile.

Then at London Advertising Week I spoke on one of their panels, looking at what is holding mobile back. It won’t surprise anyone that we all agreed on measurement and creativity as key issues.

And in the past couple of days the Facebook developer conference f8 has unveiled lots of interesting initiatives (over 25 products and tools). Some are pretty geeky but the big news was around how apps that are connected with FB for logging in and sharing can be further integrated. Particularly with Messenger, where they are encouraging app developers to build messenger into their apps. They also now have app analytics and their creation of an embedded video player is highly significant as their functionality gets closer to that of YouTube.

In his keynote Zuck talked about their family of apps and the fact they built Messenger rather than bought it is a source of some pride. Being able to add emojis Gifs and videos to your chats on Messenger strengthens them against the new generation of Messenger apps. And the idea that businesses can use it to send receipts etc is really interesting. AsBen Evans tweets Facebook isn’t taking on WeChat. It’s taking on the iOS/Android notification panel

This Wired interview with him is a good take on their thinking and this live blog of the first day is worth flipping through for a topline of what was shared.

They did talk about their ad tech and LiveRail is turning out to have been a really significant acquisition as its use is extended from video to mobile and desktop. Obviously people are pointing out that they are now going head to head with Google in more and more areas. But that’s an inevitable consequence of their battle for advertising spend. For brands what matters is whether or not you are getting the most from both of these platforms. Neither can be ignored and arguably you should spend (nearly) all your time and money getting these platforms right before thinking of focusing on other opportunities.

Enchanted Media

The Facebook spherical videos look really cool and we can start to see how they see oculus rift as an evolution of video – a smart guy at Vodafone calls this space enchanted media. Facebook  looked at optical illusions and how VR can hack the brain when talking about Oculus. This video of Googles Magic Leap acquisition is also interesting, although some are questioning how real this video is – if that makes sense. We think this whole area may move faster than anyone expects – but is still too early for brands to worry about this. There are more urgent priorities.

Facebook and publishing

Facebook also featured in one of the big debates of the week as they seek to bring publishers and their content onto the Facebook platform. Opinion is divided on whether this is a smart move for publishers or a slippery slope.

It is likely that news will follow the same trajectory as clever brands who moved from creating destination websites to distributing their content around the web – going to where the people are rather than hoping they can be dragged to the destination. For news this has some logic despite the fact they once were true destinations. But just as TV stations gravitate to the platforms with eyeballs – Sky or cable etc – so too will news brands move to platforms like Facebook and SnapChat Discover.

Buzzfeed know this and are happy for their content to be shared and distributed anywhere. If you didn’t read the piece we shared last week on their new strategy do make the time – and the video is well worth watching too.

The challenge of course is how ad revenue gets shared and whether a good deal now may get changed in the future. The answer is that really good content remains rare and therefore valuable – and the Guardian, Vice, New York Times and Vanity Fair etc have proved better at creating and curating this than anyone else. So they should be OK. As long as advertisers recognize the value of the context that good content creates

Remember Foursquare?

Since dividing into two apps Foursquare and Swarm seem to have lost their way. Swarm doesn’t offer the same ‘buzz’ for checking in and Foursquare seems to throw out random notifications telling me what the glaring obvious. At Advertising Week it helpfully tells me that the coffee is good at Bafta.

The founder has shared his thoughts on their 6th birthday and talks about how Foursquare now powers location tagging on Twitter.

Their asset is their very impressive database of places. We have never found anywhere not on Foursquare  – from surfers bars on quite beaches in Srl Lanka to bacalhau bars in Sao Paulos’ market. So their future seems to be more around a data layer than a service. Their head of product tells the story of the app split and gives a good insight into how to run product

Meerkat madness continues

Everyone seems to be on meerkat now and we have seen some good stuff and lots and lots of average stuff. We even tried to live stream Nile Rodgers and Chic from the Roundhouse last Friday but the connection wasn’t quite good enough.

It is clear that live streaming is a thing and there are already lots of ancillary services launching to add functions like discovery and saving/sharing. Twitter owned Periscope is now out of beta and available for downloadYouNow - who have been doing live streaming for a while – is getting more attention.

The VC who has invested in Meerkat talks about how they see video evolving – Spontaneous Togetherness.

Quick Reads

As Meerkat proves Mobile operators nightmares do come true, it is interesting that BT celebrate their return to mobile with deals that offer just 500mb of data. Video means people need more data and that leads to more money for operators – as long as their networks can cope. This is a good look at how both BT and the merged 3 and O2 are approaching the market.

Razorfish share their thoughts on the future of retail

The EU want a single digital market – so expect battles with content owners who prefer country by country deals

Twitter have launched cashtags so you can play people – and Businesses – over Twitter

More on Apple TV and it’s likely effect on cable cutting and Amazon are pushing their new Fire dongle – a Chromecast competitor.

Finally… as we wait for more news on the Apple Watch it’s interesting to look some of the past work by Marc Newson who Jonny Ives hired to help him design the Watch. This Newson metal chair is expected to sell for $2m

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & ContentOur clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobile and social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3500 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.

Mobile Fix – March 20

Facebook money

Ever since they poached David Marcus from Paypal we have known that Facebook were going to get into money and they have now launched their payment service for Messenger. It’s very simple – once you have added a debit card to your account – and it’s free. (Credit cards aren’t accepted right now because of the fraud risk and the fees) Once it’s all working we can expect it to roll out to the WhatsApp user base too.

With Forrester estimating mobile payments will triple to $142bn by 2019, this puts Facebook in the money game – but we think the real prize is people paying for things rather than paying their friends. Which is why the interesting news from Facebook this week is their purchase of shopping curation site The Find.

Whilst big brands are switching spend to Facebook it’s the smaller advertisers who arguably can have the most impact – the 2 million advertisers. Demonstrating how well the new Products ads work by enabling payments would solve the attribution issue once and for all.

One of the most prolific bloggers about Financial Services wonders whether banks are heading for their Kodak/Nokia moment.

Another of the smarter thinkers around Money has 5 suggestions on what banks should be thinking about – which all make good sense. But is anyone listening?

And the innovation is coming from everywhere – in China Alibaba are trialling facial recognition for payments – which sounds similar to what Square does in the US and what Paypal trialled in Richmond.

Wearables & Proximity; Mickey Mouse technology?

Halifax Bank is trying a wearable that reads your heartbeat to unlock your account  but it seems rather complicated and one suspects a double espresso or running up the stairs might cause a problem.  This sounds more like a PR stunt.

The Disney wristband sounds like a PR stunt too, but they do seem to have a really exciting service – because it solves real problems. This longish piece is worth reading as it also gets into how proximity can be helpful. If you are thinking about beacons – and who isn’t ?  – there is a lot to learn here.

And the new VC backed bus service in San Francisco is a good use case for Bluetooth / proximity. As well as showing how tech (and tech focused investment) is starting to impact every aspect of life. One other interesting example is Subway rewarding customers who use their instore wifi. Why – because the data is so valuable – knowing how often someone visits your stores can drive your CRM and  – now  – your programmatic and retargeting. The ability to connect your physical world with the digital world enables great experiences for customers

Programmatic going mainstream

As mentioned here a while back WPP are looking to take a stake in DunnHumby – the Tesco owned data powerhouse that drove the phenomenal success of the Tesco Clubcard and now works with retailers around the world. Now cynics may suggest this story has popped up again because Tesco is reviewing its £100m media account – something Sir Martin has been after for years. How better to out maneuver the competition than by negotiating for an acquisition?

But it would be an expensive tactic and the real value of Dunn Humby is the data which could fuel the WPP programmatic play. Just like their stake in MySupermarket and the recent deal with Comscore this deal would fit with WPPs ambitions in data and insight – well explained in this WSJ piece.

Whilst programmatic and its plethora of TLAs* can be a little arcane for many, it is going mainstream very quickly. Every publisher is trying to work out their best  approach – the UK ‘quality’ news brands have combined to launch the Pangea alliance. This alliance lets the publishers combine their reach and their data to better battle GAFA in programmatic buys.

Of course the original Pangea continent eventually split and formed the various continents we are familiar with today. Can this alliance last? The first thing the buyers will do is try and see which approach gets the best value – buy everything from Pangea or divide and conquer and deal direct.

Smart clients see the opportunity and are experimenting – this look at what some UK brands are doing is interesting. A few are even taking programmatic in house – Kelloggs are very positive about their experience and the numbers for taking it inhouse seem to add up – if you know what you are doing.

*Three Letter Acronyms

Missing Metrics

We have argued before that the industry obsessions with metrics – like clicks and views – that are poor surrogates for what really counts; impact on sales.

P&G know a little about marketing and they have called for more consistency around advertising and the sales outcome. This interview with Global Brand Office is good insight into how smart brands are approaching digital; he sees further growth from the current 35% share for digital.

Unilever are also looking for better research but want to move from recall and persuasion to measuring engagement.

A new study from the Mobile Marketing Association provides some real metrics – they replicated the studies the IAB did for digital 10 years ago to measure the impact of mobile in multi channel campaigns for Coke, Walmart, Mastercard and others. All the studies showed a very positive impact for mobile – on footfall in stores, purchase intent and actual sales. They argue that mobile merits a double digit share of total spend – not just of the digital budget,

Apps for news

This is an interesting look at how the news industry uses apps – and argues that most publishers would be better to concentrate on mobile web. It also tackles the myth about app use dominating mobile use – pointing out that a huge proportion of the time allocated to the Facebook app is actually spent on web pages delivered within Facebook.

There are more voices arguing for the mobile web over apps – and this piece points out that notifications reduce the need for apps.

There is no right or wrong answer – as ever the right strategy is dictated by the problem you are solving – for your business and for your customer.

Meerkat & Periscope

There is no doubt that the app that won SXSW this year was Meerkat. It is everywhere and everyone is streaming – although lots of them are not that interesting. We did see one example that demonstrates just how disruptive it will be. Social media guru Gary Veynerchuck gave a great keynote at this weeks Guardian Changing Media Summit – and he streamed it on Meerkat. Not a perfect experience but it worked really well and the 250+ people watching didn’t pay the £999 delegate fee.

As we predicted though, Twitter – who have just bought similar business Periscope – are reducing the social graph integration of Meerkat – giving them just 2 hours notice. Some good perspective here.

Lots going on at Twitter – a new second screen experience and – maybe – a new homepage. Gary V is unconvinced by Twitter and in his talk he calls on them to sort the ‘noise’ https://www.garyvaynerchuk.com/and find a way to emulate the Facebok feed – and their algorythms

Quick reads

The Homescreen project is an interesting insight into how people use apps and someone has dug further into the data to see how people group them- suggesting how the apps are primarily used.

The Apple retail stores are a huge success for Apple – arguably one of their most effective marketing tools. It turns out that they tend to pay reduced rents in malls given their ability to pull in shoppers.

More on Apple  - looks like they are finally going to make a play in TV content

More good insight into how Buzzfeed distribute content

Facebook and Deloitte publish good research into Mums in the UK

The big trend for agencies and brands at SxSW was the Start Up competitions –  but with 80 taking place the standard was variable. They are not as easy as they seem and like hacks a couple of years ago it can look like start ups are being exploited.

Finally , with CES, MWC and SxSW over the next stop on the merry go round is Cannes. Google and AKQA have a good round up of what it takes to win a Futures Lion

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & Content

Our clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobile and social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.

If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3500 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.

March 13

Video evolves

Almost exactly 10 years after the launch of YouTube we have probably seen the next step in the evolution of video ; live ephemeral video from Meerkat

In the 10 days since I signed up after seeing it on Product Hunt, the vast majority of my notifications have been from Meerkat – both as many of the people I follow on Twitter sign up and others go ‘live now’. Much of the content is peoples first attempts and not that interesting, but we are starting to see some interesting use cases. For example smart VC @cape has been using it to talk with some of their start ups. There were a couple of people streaming the Watch launch and news channel CNBC have used it for some news coverage

To get an idea of how people are using it this early piece is good but probably the best take so far is from VC Mark Suster who really understands video. But Variety already suggest it is losing its cool .

And Twitter have just acquired Periscope which sounds pretty similar – and being able to leverage the Twitter ecology is obviously going to be crucial. This description of Periscope talks up the possibilities.

Whichever service wins out, the genie is out of the bottle. Take just one obvious use case – football. The Premier league have been trying to get Vines of goals taken down but I see Leeds goals on Facebook Twitter etc all the time; imagine someone filming the whole game on Meerkat. Or Periscope.

The user experience isn’t currently great but this is a new format and it is going to disrupt a lot of things.

A new model for creating and consuming video is emerging and Peter Chernin (formerly Rupert Murdochs right hand man) believes we are heading for the golden age of video.

It’s just not clear where advertising fits.

That Watch

The other big story this week was the Apple Watch. But we actually didn’t learn very much we didn’t know before. No information on the tech, vague hints about battery life and we don’t even know the dimensions – it looks like quite a deep piece of equipment.

Probably the best commentator on Apple is Neil Cybart and his take on the launch is worth reading. The markets weren’t impressed and neither is the fashion industry.

Our view is that the launch will do pretty well as there are plenty of people who love Apple and will want to be seen with the device asap. We will only really know about the long term success when these people start showing their watches off to their friends. Word of mouth from passionate iPhone users drove that success. Will the same thing work for the watch? For that to happen the battery life needs to be good and the apps need to convince. Time will tell.

They still make laptops? 

The surprise at the event was the launch of the new Macbook which got quite mixed reviews, with many thinking the current Air and Pro are better. With great timing Google launched their new Chromebooks – which are getting great reviews.

We have long argued that – at some point – Apple gets the Levis 501 problem. Yes they are great jeans but when everyone else has them, it’s time to find an alternative. Look around any artisan coffee shop in London, Lisbon, LA or Leeds and everyone has a Macbook. How long before having a Chromebook or the Experia Z4 is the cool choice? And what does that do to the Apple ecology?

If you are in London you can play with the new Chromebooks (and the very impressive Nexus 6) at Googles first ever retail store. It’s not quite the Brand Cathedral that Apple typically does – being a part of the Currys store on Tottneham Court Road –but it is worth a visit.

Audio – next big thing?

One thing we can be sure the Watch will do is popularize voice commands. There is a whole Dick Tracy thing about talking into your watch and Siri (and Google) has taught us how to do this. Google research shows that teens love voice search and we expect the rest of us will catch up.

There is a likely new dimension though – text to voice. If I get an alert on my watch about a new email, why do I have to try and read it on my watch or get out my phone? Why can’t it be read to me – hopefully, for everyone elses sake -  through my Bluetooth head set?

If you hack around with the iPhone accessibility settings you can get anything read out but you have to redo it for each web page or email. But we find using it with Kindle works quite well. Expect to see a lot of innovation around this in the next few months And, sorry -yes, we did predict this in our futurology piece back in 2001

Quick Reads

The Apple app store was down for 12 hours– is that enough to impact on Facebook and Yahoo next quarter figures?

We are fascinated by the similarities  – and differences – between GAFA and their Galapogos equivalents BAT (Baidu, Alibaba & Tencent). An interesting move sees Amazon open a store on the Alibaba owned Tmall to try and build their business in China. And Alibaba have invested $200m in Snapchat – at a valuation of $15bn. Which raises the intriguing question; what are Snapchat spending all this money on?

They are also doing quite well on advertising – in their new Discover section Snapchat is getting $100cpm with no targeting and no clickthrough.

Depressingly, over half of UK media agencies regularly leave mobile off their plans! This article looks at some of the excuses.

The tension between many clients and their agencies over remuneration erupts again, with GroupM denying allegations they profit from rebates. One of the media industries best informed bloggers gives his perspective. This distrust is likely to get worse as brands begin to understand the significance of their data and worry about who they share it with.

A look at where Buzzfeed find all those cat videos

This is a good look at the threat from GAFA for banking – from the head of Spains top bank BBVA. And this is how BBVA is embracing digital. Plus some smart advice on how banks should be thinking about payments and how they should be experimenting.

Facebook are helping brands deliver their messaging by letting them target formats by device type. So on a smartphone with a good connection the video shows and those on a poor connection or a low end device get still images. This is the first green shoots of ads that are optimized to their audience – as Kelloggs say “30% is the media; 70% is the creative, as far as I’m concerned,”

And they are sharing their treasure trove of insights with their advertisers in their new Topic Data

This is an  excellent piece on the need for creative to evolve to take advantage of the programmatic opportunity. And this piece on the age of context – by an ex Google and Facebook exec turned VC – details the opportunity. Follow @Route55 for more news on our progress in this space.

Finally…This stuff might just work. BooHoo profits up by 27%. Could it be down to this?

Mobile now represents almost half of all traffic and daily unique visitors to its website, which markets and sells own-brand clothing and shoes to a core market of 16 to 24-year-olds. Mobile conversion improved by more than 40 per cent in the past quarter, it said.

Everyone in your sector knows how to use TV and old media. They have sorted their distribution and pricing, just as you have. But the chances are, they are pretty poor at mobile and social.

So if you do mobile really really well you can get real competitive advantage. What are we waiting for?

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & Content

Our clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobile and social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.

If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3500 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.

Mobile Fix – March 6

The Missing Metrics

…..in a survey of CEOs, close to three out of four agreed with the following statement: marketers “are always asking for more money, but can rarely explain how much incremental business this money will generate.

This worrying fact comes from a good McKinsey piece which actually makes the argument that we are at the dawn of a golden age in marketing. The piece is well worth reading and its premise that science and storytelling can be combined to great effect is compelling.

But we also think it points out a major issue for marketing – Missing Metrics.

In many of our conversations with brands the substance of digital metrics is questioned. Clicks, visits and impressions  – polluted by worries over viewability and bots – aren’t seen as valid. Especially at board level, where they obsess over customers, revenues and profits.

Clearly reliable attribution is the holy grail but one missing metric is around brand effect – the data points that have driven traditional marketing for generations. Shouldn’t we adopt that in mobile? It is possible to pretest mobile creative for brand metrics and to optimize programmatic around brand metrics. Why aren’t we doing this more?

The second Missing Metric is around how advertising can and does annoy people. See that same ad again and again? Video ads that autoplay with the sound up? Pops ups and interstials – where the X to close is so small it’s almost impossible not to end up clicking through? And the relentless retargeting, stalking you around the web?

If brands could measure just how many people were annoyed by these clumsy tactics, would they still do them? There is a macro metric around annoying people – the rise in adblocking.  Perhaps we should all just imagine there is such a micro metric too and recognize that pissing people off probably isn’t a good idea.

The best answer to adblocking is to make advertising better. As we no longer have to treat people as strangers, we can now use data to really understand which ads are relevant to people. And therefore less likely to annoy. And more likely to be effective.

Traditional & Digital

On a similar tip we see that smart brands know that a mix of old and new media makes sense. Which is why we favour aligning around brand metrics. Whilst the agency world isn’t that well organized to deliver this type of support, these clients are able to orchestrate different people to deliver the best of both worlds.

It’s worth remembering that GAFA are pretty big on traditional media too. Facebook have a UK ad campaign live at the moment – developed inhouse. And Google spent £45m (almost as much as Ford) in 2013 – making it the UKs 31st biggest advertiser and Amazon outspent Vauxhall coming in at number 40.

They know – like we do – that what’s important is marketing that’s right for the digital age, rather than digital marketing.

(You can get a better idea of how Google approach marketing in this interview with their marketing supremo)

News Media

New data on the readership of the UKs newspapers shows the migration to mobile – with print now the smallest proportion for many titles. Key exception being Murdochs titles, which have a tiny digital readership.

Murdoch has a subscription model but everyone else relies on ad revenue. And the industry seems to have decided that a reader holding their smartphone is worth considerably less than a reader with newsprint on their fingers.

So we can imagine the economics here, as the cpm for mobile is likely to be a fraction of that for print. But conversions are so much lower on mobile, I hear you cry. No-one knows much about the conversions on print but brands know a full page in a tabloid gets the attention of the reader.

If we can’t find a way to better capture the value of the mobile users attention, the future for these newspapers doesn’t look that healthy.

The other part of the news landscape seems to be doing better. Vice and Buzzfeed are setting the agenda and Upworthy are seen as the fastest growing media economy of all time. Now you could debate whether you should lump all these brands in the same news bucket, but many do – and the old school print legacy people are increasingly adopting behaviours from these newcomers.

This piece lauding Buzzfeed as the most important news organisation in the world is worth reading. And so is this Guardian piece on Upworthy. This article looking at the secret sauce driving viral content at these sites is worth a look too.

But ultimately it comes down to monetization and whether the only option for the old players is to learn the new tricks of native and viral video.

We still think that good old fashioned advertising can work on mobile and the news sites can prosper through delivering the attention of their readers through compelling creative. That’s why we have partnered with ResponsiveAds to launch their platform in Europe – rich, engaging messaging that works across devices and reduces the time and cost of production. If you want to make your advertising work harder get in touch

Mobile Money

Whilst Apple don’t talk about their progress with Pay, Chase Manhattan say they have provisioned over 1 million wallets – so momentum is good. And their data suggests Pay customers are more active. There is more activity in the market with PayPal making an interesting acquisition and Google announcing their new payments service, snappily called Android Pay. Maybe the Google marketing people didn’t get involved in that one.

Of course activity around finance attracts the interest of crooks too and it seems they are targeting Apple stores as they take Apple Pay and sell things that are easily sold on. It’s not actually a weakness in the tech but rather the banks system for onboarding new customers. But the headlines are all focused on Pay and this inevitablty adds to the friction around growing mobile payments.

GAFA & Product

In the run up to Mobile World, Congress we gained some good insight into GAFA with interviews with key people at Facebook and Google.

Chris Cox is the Chief Product Officer at Facebook and this video of an interview with him is worth the 50 minutes

He talks for the first time about Facebook’ ambition to have publishers upload their content directly onto Facebook (probably similar in concept if not in execution to Snapchats Discover?). But he admits publishers are proving reticent. No surprise there then. He also talks about their focus on video. Again, well worth watching.

As is this interview with Sundar Pichai of Google – Larry Pages go to guy for product. With a lot of responsibility (essentially everything other than YouTube and adsales) he covers a lot of topics. The key insights are the likely dismantling of Google+ – with popular elements like Hangouts and Photos standing more alone – and their plans for monetizing Play store with search ads.

And he carefully answers a question about the Google search in ioS – saying it’s a long term deal and ..

I think how search manifests in iOS will work out just fine. We have a long term search partnership and are working together with them, and we’ll have to see.

As we mentioned last week the competition between Facebook and Google for ad spend is heating up. A UK commentator thinks Facebook new product ads are going to hurt Google and we are told Walmart have pulled out of Google Shoping ads. A very interesting space to watch.

MWC

70k people schlepped to Barcelona this week for the Mobile World Congress. We resisted the temptation and just missed a few good parties and a lot of walking.

As well as lots of new devices – which all look just the same – from everyone apart than Apple, the ad agencies and vendors were the main attraction with lots of meeting rooms booked. And the odd party.

The head of probably the biggest player in mobile adbuying wrote a good summary of the key themes of the event from a marketing viewpoint.

And Mark Zuckerberg gave a talk on Internet.org – the drive to get more people from emerging markets online. People from MNOs joined him and he pushed them to provide the free data to hook people into – eventually – paying for it.

Quick Reads 

More good stuff on understanding the Blockchain

A good look at BAT – the Chinese GAFA – and how they are getting into mobile.

And a look at how Brushers game Alibaba -  faking sales and reviews to improve their ranking.

The Instagram advertising portfolio is expanding with Carousel ads.

A number of mobile operators are cooperating to push the mobile as key to the digital identity of users. Given that people keep their phone numbers and the way SMS is increasingly used to confirm sign ups, this makes good sense. And puts the MNO right back in the game with first party data.

Finally …it’s worth revisiting the McKinsey report we mentioned earlier. They ask 5 questions to see if you are prepared for this golden age of marketing. How do you score?

  1. Are we taking advantage of the science of data and research to uncover new insights, or are we working off yesterday’s facts, assertions, and heuristics?
  2. Do we fully exploit the power of marketing to enhance the substance—that is, the products, services, and experiences—we offer our customers, or are we just selling hard with a “me-too” mind-set?
  3. Do we have a clear brand story that echoes through cyberspace, or do we feel that we aren’t quite capturing hearts and minds?
  4. Have we created simplifiers within our organization, or have complex matrices become a logjam?
  5. Are we faster or slower to market than our competition?

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & Content

Our clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobile and social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.

If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3500 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.

Mobile Fix – February 27

Mobile TransformationA new report from Boston Consulting says that consumers benefit from mobile to the tune of $3.5 trillion globally – as much as $4k for each user. Whether you buy into this type of analysis or not, their data on what people would give up rather do without mobile Internet is quite powerful. The report is quite a long read but interesting.

Fix readers know that million of people have transformed how they live their lives because of mobile. What may be surprising is just how concentrated the attention is;

A report from Ericsson shows that around 2/3 of peoples mobile time is taken up by just 5 apps – with social and video dominating. If your mobile strategy is based around your app it’s an uphill struggle – especially as Kantar research suggests a quarter of Android apps are uninstalled within 10 minutes of being downloaded.But it is clear we are still quite early in this switch to mobile and there is lots of potential – the Flurry CEO predicting that 2015 is the year of mobile commerce.

In his talk at the Yahoo conference the other week he showed one chart that reinforces the size of the mobile opportunity – the OTT messaging apps now have more users than the mobile operators do

Mobile advertisingThe business model of this new mobile world is clearly advertising.  Stratchery make an interesting comparison between TV and Snapchat – big audiences with a good level of engagement but little or no targeting. And he makes the point that brands want big audiences, especially of young people. And that Snapchat have learned from Facebook that size matters so they are seen as;

the mobile messaging app with the rather old-fashioned business model ready and willing to take the place of TV.

US research shows that young people are just not watching traditional TV in the same numbers.

Mr Juenger at Bernstein Research argues that television is undergoing a “structural” migration from ad-supported networks to streaming video services. “We don’t think those viewers are coming back,” he warns.

But is that old fashioned business model enough anymore?New research approaches from Facebook Yahoo and others are correlating product purchase with ad exposure with increasing reliability. New academic research confirms what we have known for a long time – digital is equally able to drive brand metrics as TV is.

Smart marketers are moving a proportion of their TV spend to digital with Facebook a major beneficiary. But is taking a spot designed for TV into social media the best approach?

Facebooks new Atlas supremo reminded us on Twitter of a point ad guru Dave Trottt made – most advertising is academic because it either isn’t noticed or isn’t remembered.

Headroom: “£18.3bn is spent yearly in the UK on advertising. 4% remembered positively, 7% negatively, 89% not noticed/remembered”@davetrott

— Damian Burns (@damianburns) February 26, 2015

(Read the original Dave Trott article here)If 89% of ads are not noticed or remembered in traditional media should we really be taking the same ads into digital?

Advertising has also talked to strangers – because it had no alternative.

So ads have to be ‘bland’ enough to appeal to everyone. And bland doesn’t get noticed.

But in our brave new data driven world advertising to strangers is an anathema. We can know lots about the people we’re talking to, so we can and must tailor the message to be relevant.

It then has a better than 1 in 10 chance of being noticed.

So the economics of creative change – and when you blend in technology, we can industrialise creative production – and make it more effective.

SME s – The neglected ad opportunity

When we talk about advertising we all tend to focus on big brands spending large amounts through their agencies. But the hidden part of the advertising iceberg is the small advertisers who have a local footprint. Many of these SMEs have already weaned themselves off traditional media – look at how thin local press, trade press and directories tend to be these days.

A large element of Google growth has been these small advertisers using search as a wonderfully efficient way to reach customers.

But Facebook is making big inroads into this market – and seem to be taking revenue from Google. A friend tweeted about this;

Top analysis @brianwieser Pivotal Research: Small businesses represent 25% of @facebook ad revenue much of growth at the expense of @google

— Christophe Cauvy (@ChristopheCauvy) February 24, 2015

And Sheryl Sandberg said in an interview that Facebook now has 2 million active advertisers – up from 1.5m in the middle of last year. A smart Fix friend who works with smaller brands thinks Google is too slow and now focuses on finding leads on Facebook.

As recognition of this growth Facebook now has an app SMEs can use to manage their ads

Quick reads

Boom. As predicted Google are finally going to use mobile optimised as a signal in compiling search results and they expect it will have a significant impact in our search resultsYou have until April 21 to get a mobile site

Given the mystery over the Apple Car this detailed look at the auto industry is an interesting read. It’s noteworthy that the report is from a firm better known for focusing on mobile.

Following up our look at Mobile money last week Google have jumped back in the game by buying the wallet firm the US operators developed. Your enemies enemy can sometimes be your friend. Some think the big opportunity for Google is to buy PayPal.

And this report from Brightons’ smartest thinkers is a very good take on the trends shaping the financial industry.

The UK government have made a huge success of improving their digital presence and it is being copied around the world. Most brands could learn something from the way they approach digital.

A good look at Line – the messaging app that makes vast amounts of money.

Is Pinterest the next big ad business?

Some good examples of retail blending with mobile

YouTube doesn’t make much money – even before the competition really gets going

good new blog post from Ben Evans pointing out that disruption in mobile comes from the top as well as the bottom.  And this is a good profile of Evans and his work for VC a16z

Finally…. I spent last Friday at the Techstars Demo Day. Having been a mentor to the really smart people at Big Data for Humans I had met all the teams at the start of the process. But I was astonished at how the 12 weeks had transformed some of them and the day was a succession of compelling pitches from really promising start ups. This list of some bigger, more established, start ups, reminds us how this start up energy translates into our everyday life.

Mobile Fix – January 30

This week provided yet more evidence that mobile is changing everything.

Apple made more money than any other company ever. $18bn in profit in just 3 months. Only oil companies have come close. And Facebook blew through predictions to have a record quarter – their results deck is worth flicking through. Whilst the topline figures above are amazing, the stat we think most relevant is that over half a billion people use Facebook each month only from their mobile. And over on the other side of the world Alibaba customers spent over $50billion on their mobiles in 3 months.

The world has changed and we need to evolve marketing to take advantage..

Apple 

The huge success of the iPhone drives the Apple performance, as iPad growth continue to slow. It’s likely they sold more iPhones than all the devices that Samsung sold over the same quarter. And they lost more money due to currency fluctuations than Google made profit in Q3.

The watch is next and the talent drive continues with the hire of the person behind Burberry digital retail initiatives – who dreamt up things like this Christmas window display at Printemps in Paris.

Pay is a key Anchor for Apple – a service so good people will be reluctant to move to an Android – and a new deal takes it into 200k vending machines and self serve locations across the US

Facebook

Another key stat from the Facebook investors deck-  is that the Advertising ARPU is $8.26 – up 55% on the same quarter last year – whilst in Europe it is just $3.22 – up 36% on 2013. So despite fantastic growth, there is still more potential – supporting what we hear from brands.

They continue to grow their suite of tools for brands and a new tool lets advertisers test ads against control groups. The FT looks at their ambition to take TV budgets and concludes by quoting an analyst who says she thinks it will happen very slowly. We disagree. The ability to target video and optimise creative messaging using data will be hugely attractive to smart brands.

And the other end of their mission is to bring people in emerging markets onto Facebook which is helped by a new app for emerging markets. Designed to work on low end Android devices this ‘lite’ app is being launched in 8 markets across Africa and Asia.

Google

The Google results were OK - not quite good enough to beat estimates but healthy rises in revenue and income was 40% higher than the same period last year. Although this was helped by the proceeds of selling Motorola.

Google search share declined by 1.6% after Mozilla switched to Yahoo as its default search engine – showing its vulnerability to the same happening at Apple.

And they continue to drive new/better ways of connecting to the internet, with Fiber rolling out into new cities and investments in Elon Musks’ SpaceX  programme so they can use satellites to deliver internet access to remote parts of the world. But the most surprising thing is their rumoured partnership with Sprint to develop an MVNO – where US phone users could use Google as their phone network. It’s what Virgin and GiffGaff do in the UK and we suggested it was a good idea for Google back in 2006

Not all Google projects are on such a grand scale – the ability to pay bills via your gmail still solves a problem and is now available in the UK.

Amazon

Amazon beat estimates  - the first time for a while – and surprised everyone with a modest profit and impressive growth in Prime customers. But their wallet has been withdrawn - although the benefits to Amazon of knowing what people are spending on is so huge we are confident they will keep trying.

And they continue to try new products – they now offer email with a new WorkMail product.

Alibaba

Of course we now know that GAFA is not the only game in town and the moves made by BAT in China are increasingly influential. Yahoo cooked up a smart way of dealing with their hugely valuable Alibaba stake saving billions in taxes.

The key thing though is that Alibaba users spent $126 billion over the last quarter – of which $53 billion was on mobile.

Snapchat

There is a lot going on at Snapchat. Their news service looks really good. Their ad products are getting a good reaction.  And they are attracting brands looking to innovate, with ATT launching a scripted content play. The production company behind HollyOaks have already used Snapchat stories to reveal a storyline and we are convinced that episodic content with thrive on social media.

Adblocking

I think the ad industry massively underestimates the amount of ad blocking software that users deploy #Adblock

— Darren Herman (@dherman76) January 28, 2015

We agree with this tweet from a key person at Mozilla.  The economics of content creation are fragile enough without users avoiding the main monetization method. Our friends at econsultancy have taken a good look at how publishers play with pay walls and subscription barriers. We probably need better ad models to deal with this and Rezonence are doing some good work on this with their Freewall, as are TrueX for video, who were bought by Fox recently

Quick reads

An FT feature on mobile money points out that across Africa innovations with mobile continue to get mass market acceptance. Lots for Western banks to learn here.

A good take on driverless cars and how they will change the world – faster than you think. One thought – will Google use these as mobile wifi hotspots?

And Googles own futurologist Ray Kurzweil makes some very interesting predictions about the future here. In 25 years non biological intelligence (robots) will be a billion time smarter than biological intelligence (us)

We are increasingly convinced that O2O retailers are going to beat online pureplays. Having an offline presence makes so much sense and this article looks at how people like Warby Parker are investing in shops. And even good old fashioned mail order catalogues are enjoying something of a comeback. Combining the best of both worlds has to be the best bet.

This is an interesting look at how a Vine celebrity is created

With the inexorable rise of programmatic there is some debate over how agencies are approaching the space. This anonymous account of the UK scene is interesting but should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

But the targeting inherent in smart digital can cause unexpected problems. WeChat users have reacted angrily to a BMW campaign – people complaining that they haven’t been targeted.

Finally… this presentation from the DLD event in Munich last week is a must watch. One of the few people I have found that talks even faster than me, Scott Galloway gives a great take on GAFA.

 

Addictive helps businesses profit from Mobile, Social & Content

Our clients hire us to do strategy consulting, creative thinking and to create the mobile and social apps, mobile sites and ad formats needed to make the strategy deliver.

If you could do with some smart thinking or doing around any of the subjects we cover then do get in touch

We produce Mobile Fix every week to share news and views on mobile and related topics. We have over 3300 subscribers across tech firms like Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo etc as well as many Brands and Agencies. We’re happy for you to forward this mail to anyone you think might be interested. If they do find it useful they can sign up for email here.