So later today we’ll find out how much Facebook is worth. And all the signs suggest the figure will be north of $100bn – meaning people are paying 103 times this years revenues. Given the Google flotation valued them on the first day at 69 times their revenues, this is pretty bullish.
Henry Blodget of Business Insider knows a bit about tech IPOs and his headline says it all;
Facebook Insiders Pounce On IPO Frenzy — Now Dumping 85 Million More Shares On Muppets
The hype was dented a little this week when the decision of General Motors to pull their $10m spend on Facebook, made lots of headline. Oddly the quotes from Ford etc saying they remained committed to Facebook didn’t get the same prominence.
As a smart friend, from a WPP media agency, tweeted – GM are just doing it wrong.
But the ad industry skeptics are out in force and if they are right, then the float really is muppet bait. GigaOM point out that, right now, Facebook is essentially a media company but there are other revenue models open to them.
Facebook have the opportunity to redefine how advertising works – and if they can do that whilst making the transition to a mobile company, there is a really lucrative future. Noah Bryer sums this up well – they have to find a way to create intent. And this is more positive thinking about the way Facebook can quickly monetise mobile – more sponsored stories, innovate around location and offers and enable device specific targeting.
Given that around 2/3rds of active internet users are using Facebook the sheer size of the opportunity means you’d be foolish to bet against them finding ways to make money.
Our take is that we wouldn’t invest money in buying shares. But we would invest money is buying ads on the platform. Done properly they do work – and are a smart way to amplify the content created on fan pages.
(This is some smart thinking on how to value a Facebook fan and this Forrester report on Facebook and marketing is worth reading too)
NewTV
Last Saturday saw the first Shazamable ads in the UK in Britains Got Talent from Pepsi and Cadbury. Reports suggest 50,000 people interacted with the ads which seems a good start for this 2screen tool. We were interested to see well connected media journalist Kate Bulkley tweet;
but i hear only 400 people used zeebox 4 BGT
Could it be that 2Screen needs the broadcaster to prompt/remind people to interact? Which makes us wonder if/when ITV and C4 will jump into the space with a proprietary 2Screen service.
This interview with Shazams commercial powerhouse is worth a read as is this summary of how brands are experimenting with 2screen. Smart brands are really focused on how 2screen can work – as this quote from Pepsi suggests;
We agree – we’re very focused on this opportunity right now.
Google Knowledge Graph
Whilst all the attention is on Facebook, Google have been busy. This week they have launched a major initiative around search called Knowledge Graph where they seek to match searches to concepts or entities rather than just pages that match the search query. As search expert Danny Sullivan explains, this is a big step forward in search.
It’s rolling out in the US first so we haven’t played with it yet – but, of course, it works on mobile too.
Other Google news this week is an update of the data on Our Mobile Planet, the excellent research source that Google launched last year and new content around the Zero Moment of Truth, the Google look at how retail works.
The other big news is the new mobile version of Google+ - where they have created a really compelling service – much preferable to the desktop version. Even if you have given up on Google+ we think this is well worth trying.
eBay
eBay have released new research suggesting retailers could boost revenues by £2.4bn through adopting new technologies like mobile and connected TV. Following their push for better connectivity, eBay is very focused on a mobile agenda. One of their key people has written a good article for the Guardian on the need for a mobile strategy.
And they continue to innovate with mobile tools – the latest version of their fashion app enables users to take a photo of a colour or pattern and search for clothes that match on eBay.
The data derived from shopping etc is one of the key assets that PayPal has in mobile money.
Quick reads
Whilst we wait to see what Richard Branson will do with Square and Northern Rock, iZettle (the Swedish Square) is launching in the UK.
Pinterest is now valued at $1bn – with most of the investment coming from a Japanese ecommerce business – supporting our view that Pinterest is a getting to be really important as inspiration for shopping.
The huge growth in reading magazines on the mobile isn’t turning out to be that lucrative – many people are TIVOing their reading by saving articles in Evernote etc to read later. Which would be fine, if these reader tools didn’t tend to strip out all the ads.
We had to miss the IAB Mobile event yesterday but heard good reports – especially of the Twitter deck on Mobile & Social from Bruce Daisley. Great examples of how advertising is being reinvented in social and mobile.
Finally – we’re hiring. We’re looking for a really smart account manager who loves mobile and gets social. And we have a paid intern role over the summer. Both people need to be practising what they preach, so having an active twitter feed etc is key. If you know anyone suitable, point them our way.



