So Twitter has IPOd. With aggressive pricing everyone was watching to see whether it would do a Facebook and drop in price. Well no. It went up over 70%
As the chart above shows, people need to think about these things in the long term
Peter Kim @peterkim
Rough market valuation of a monthly active user on Twitter $107.76 vs Facebook $98.85 vs LinkedIn $93.82
Of course Facebook rebounded and is now trading around $50 so $1000 invested in the Facebook IPO would be worth $1269
One of the things we have been pondering since last week is the ARPU figures that Facebook shared in their latest results. Worldwide they make $1.53 from advertising for each user. In the US the figure is $4.19 – so there is significant potential for revenue to grow. And the ‘other revenue’ generates $0.19 ARPU globally.
In our client work we are seeing more and more brands focusing on emerging markets and given the dominance of Facebook in so much of world we expect that US best practice will be exported to other regions – driving up the ARPU.
(We found some old data on ARPU for more established media players that suggest Facebook are doing pretty well. Does anyone have any more recent data?)
This article, has also dug deeper into last weeks Facebook results conference call and makes the point that Facebook have lots of data and consequently a rich understanding of their users and they are constantly enriching this. As Forrester pointed out in their pop at Facebook most advertisers aren’t using this data well – if at all. When they do, the ads should work harder and brands should be willing to pay more.
To try and make sure this happens they are investing in talent. In the UK they have hired a smart MD (a Fix subscriber and a friend) and demonstrated their focus on advertising with ex agency people in most of the key roles. And to accommodate the doubling of staff that is planned, they have hired Frank Gehry - one of the worlds finest architects – to fit our their new offices. Architecture and advertising buffs may be aware he built the iconic Binoculars building in Venice Beach for iconic ad agency Chiat Day. Now it’s a Google office.
$1000 invested in the Amazon IPO would be worth $239k.
The common view is that Amazon have prospered at the expense of others – book publishers, mom and pop bookshops etc. But this piece argues that, as well as ensuring the customer benefits, what Amazon does is often good for the whole industry.
Their move into advertising is shrouded in secrecy with a key exec doing an interview in which she says very little – but a flavour of the sort of ads Amazon wants can be gleaned;
I’m just a big believer in advertising that’s relevant and meaningful,” Utzschneider says. “I want us to run ads that we’re proud of. I want to see more advertising that is across screens but serves a purpose and that we all collectively raise our customer experience bar.”
A new book on Amazon paints a picture of Jeff Bezos as an incredibly smart businessman but ruthless too. A number of insiders – including the wife of Jeff Bezos – have criticised the book. And of course they used one of Amazons key innovations to do so – the reviews. It is still a must read.
When we ordered our copy we saw that same day delivery is now available within the M25 and in a number of cities. Not cheap, but a sign of what’s to come.
$1000 investing in the Google IPO would be worth just over $12k.
Google maps continue to fascinate us. One of the best projects we did at BigPicture made maps social, with a mashup to enable travellers to share their tips, photos and adventures in Australia. Not bad for 2006.
Since then there has been lots of innovation and the latest desktop version bakes in social knowledge around traffic through their recent acquisition Waze. StreetView is back to being front and centre, with a nice Twitter promotion celebrating the return of Pegman. Of course, as part of their Mobile First philosophy, much of this has been on the mobile version for a while.
We see lots of ways of using maps as a way to organize information and deliver experiences ( the Music City project we are working on is all about maps) and if you are interested in what’s next, this video of the Google maps team being interviewed is worth watching;
“When we combine the location with the other data we have, we can actually build a new map for every purpose or every location — a very specific map that no one has ever seen and won’t be there again because it was just created for this one purpose.”
Google have taken Google Now into the real world with a ‘pilot’ deployment of 160 outdoor sites giving location and time relevant information. Smart marketing for a key Google service but it could also indicate future ambitions.
The outdoor contract for Transport for London is one of the biggest media deals in the world – the last one being worth around $1.6bn – and it’s up for renewal in 2015.
Given the changes in the media landscape since the current contract was awarded in 2008, you have to wonder if it’s the traditional outdoor businesses that will bid. The current contactor CBS has been through some disputes with TFL and have recently been bought by a private equity firm. And industry gossip suggests they feel they overpaid last time.
Google could bring a lot to this party. They already provide free wifi in Manhattan and their product suite could make the user experience of tubes and buses so much better. And Google would get access to lots more inventory. Maybe they could even use the Tube as ‘an interactive space’ to teach people about its technology: the sort of thing the San Francisco barges are apparently going to be used for.
The TFL contract is worth watching. After all, their new offices hold twice as many people as Google currently employ. What are all those new people going to do?
1000 invested in Apple IPO way back in 1980 would now be worth $189k
The FT have a good piece on Apple;
“The last year was about setting the foundation to build upon for the next decade plus,”
Whilst we don’t know what new products they have coming, we do know that their interest is advertising is renewed. With lots of smart hires and a reporting line into rising star Eddy Cue, the first new opportunity is iTunes Radio which has attracted big brands in the US and a UK launch is imminent.
The smart people at PSFK have published their latest Future of Retail reports and from the sample it looks just as good as the previous ones. Whilst ecommerce and Amazon are growing really fast, there is still lots of energy and innovation around more traditional looking retail.
It is clear that the winners will be those that combine the best of both worlds and the push for faster delivery etc shows that ecommerce and the high street can be complimentary.
This article looks at the future of retail and suggests that retailers need to do what Amazon doesn’t do. Experiences are key and the Brand Cathedrals of Apple and Nike should be the inspiration.
In our client work we are seeing that mobile has a role to play in driving traffic – with geotargeted ads and proximity triggered app alerts etc – and equally when people are in store – with profile driven offers.
The level of tracking is growing – with different types of data being used to determine the right action. One Russian startup uses facial recognition at point of sale but we’re not sure about how clever their example is…
“If you are an angry man of 30, and it is Friday evening, it may offer you a bottle of whiskey,” said Ekaterina Savchenko, the company’s head of marketing
The facial recognition that Tesco are rolling out in their petrol stores is hopefully better thought through – with Red Bull as their example.
Clearly the beacon technology from Apple has a big role to play too.
Book of the week
Whilst the Amazon book is a must read, this week you really must read the Twitter back story by the New York Times writer, Nick Bilton.
One person who is really happy with the Twitter float is VC Chris Sacca. He has been quietly buying stock from employees and investors over the past couple of years and he now owns 28% of the company. Around 1$billion.
Ben Evans has shared a great deck on Mobile eating the world – lots of great data.
16% of Argos sales are now through mobile.
Whilst the Twitter float shows there is lots of money gravitating to tech, it isn’t like that for every startup. This look at photo startup Everpix shows that sometimes having a good product isn’t enough.
Mobile builds brands. Comscore and Oreo case study proves what we always knew.
Finally... Jack Dorsey – one of the Twitter founders – needed something to do in the afternoon. So he started another business. Square is likely to float next year. It’s valued at $3.3billion right now.